Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN)

Summary
• Price opened at 2965.0 and closed at 2852.0 over 24 hours.
• Volatility spiked with a 15-minute decline from 2965.0 to 2906.0.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum in late hours.
• Volume and turnover remained low, with no divergence signs.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 20:30 ET, suggesting further downside risk.

SOLMXN opened at 2965.0 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 2965.0 and 2842.0 during the 24-hour period, closing at 2852.0. Total volume was 15.564 SOL, and total notional turnover was approximately 44,440 MXN. The pair experienced a sharp downward move after 17:30 ET, followed by consolidation and a bearish close.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish engulfing pattern at 20:30 ET–21:00 ET (2025-11-11 210000), as the pair opened at 2900.0 and closed at 2875.0. This formation suggests a potential reversal from a downtrend into a more bearish trajectory. A doji formed at 03:45 ET, indicating indecision and possibly signaling a pause in the move. Support levels were established around 2842.0 and 2831.0, while key resistance held at 2875.0 and 2861.0.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs showed bearish crossover signals late in the session. The 20 SMA crossed below the 50 SMA around 05:00–05:30 ET, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines were not fully available, but the trend appears to have remained bearish since the 20:30 ET bearish engulfing.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 02:00–02:30 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI moved into oversold territory during the late hours, reaching levels below 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI remained below its 50 threshold throughout the session, indicating a continuation of bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion after the sharp drop from 2965.0 to 2875.0. The 2842.0 close fell below the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions. A retest of the lower band may trigger a short-term bounce but is unlikely to reverse the broader bearish trend without significant buying pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained muted during most of the session, with notable spikes at 21:00–22:00 ET and 06:45–07:00 ET. Turnover increased during the bearish move from 2965.0 to 2842.0, confirming the downward momentum. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 2965.0 to 2842.0, the 2852.0 close aligned with the 61.8% retracement level. This suggests a potential pause or temporary rebound, though further bearish action is likely if the 2831.0 level is tested.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern identified at 20:30 ET, a backtest could be conducted using this candle as an entry trigger for a short trade. A stop-loss could be placed above the 2875.0 resistance level, while the first target would be the 2831.0 support level. The volume and RSI confirmed the pattern’s strength, increasing confidence in the signal. Using historical data to validate the strategy would help quantify its effectiveness in similar market conditions.