Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price dropped sharply from 4301 to 4095 SOLMXN within 24 hours, with heavy sell-off in the latter half.
• Volume surged at 00:15 ET and 15:15 ET, coinciding with major price declines.
• Bollinger Bands indicate tightening volatility earlier, followed by a sharp expansion.
• RSI and MACD suggest strong bearish momentum and oversold conditions toward the 24-hour close.
• No significant bullish reversal patterns formed, but a potential test of support at 4095 could trigger further downside.

Opening Summary

On 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) opened at 4301, with a high of 4307 and a low of 4095, closing at 4100. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 125.65, and notional turnover amounted to 537,011.5 (SOLMXN volume-weighted average). The pair has shown a bearish bias with heightened volatility late in the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period showed a sharp downward trend from 4301 to 4095, forming a long bearish candle at the close. A significant decline was observed at 15:15 ET (4165 to 4095), indicating strong bearish pressure. A potential support level may be forming around 4095, with a prior minor support at 4230. A key resistance level is at 4307, which failed to hold.

Technical Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a downward crossover, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI is currently in oversold territory, nearing 25, which could signal a possible rebound. However, the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram. Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion late in the session, reflecting increased volatility.

Bollinger Bands and Momentum Confirmation

Price has remained near the lower band for most of the session, with a brief bounce near the 4100 level. The volatility expansion at the close could indicate a potential reversal or continuation of the downtrend. A sustained break above 4235 may challenge the mid-band and suggest a short-term rebound, but bearish momentum appears stronger.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Trading volume spiked at 00:15 ET (10.863) and again at 15:15 ET (3.349), coinciding with sharp price declines. Turnover mirrored these spikes, confirming bearish sentiment. The absence of significant volume during sideways periods suggests limited interest in driving a reversal. A divergence between price and volume during the final 15 minutes indicates potential exhaustion of bearish selling.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 4301 to 4095, key levels include 4266 (38.2%), 4228 (50%), and 4191 (61.8%). The price has already tested and bounced off the 50% level at 4235, but failed to hold it. A further test of 4095 may provide a potential entry point for short-term longs if a bullish reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a break of the 4235 Fibonacci level, confirmed by a volume spike and RSI divergence. Stops could be placed above the 4307 resistance, while targets aim for 4095 and 4040 based on Fibonacci extensions. This approach would align with the observed bearish momentum and key levels identified in the technical setup.