Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) 24-Hour Summary

Summary
• Price remained range-bound near 3004 MXN, with minimal volatility.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions briefly, but lacked follow-through.
• Low volume and turnover suggest muted market participation.

Opening Snapshot and Market Activity

SOLMXN opened at 2855 MXN on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of 3027 MXN and a low of 2855 MXN, closing at 3004 MXN on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 23.322 SOL, with a notional turnover of approximately 69,944.68 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action showed a strong rejection at 2855 MXN during early hours, followed by a sharp rally after 21:45 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 21:45, confirming a short-term reversal. Later in the session, price found resistance around 3027 MXN and consolidated near 3004 MXN, indicating a potential key support level forming there.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were close together, suggesting sideways momentum. The daily chart, with 50, 100, and 200-day averages, showed the current close above the 50-day average, but not yet above the 100- and 200-day averages, signaling caution for long-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD was flat for much of the session, indicating low momentum. RSI briefly spiked above 70 (overbought) at 21:45 before retreating to neutral territory. The lack of follow-through suggests the rally may not be sustainable without additional volume.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion following the 21:45 breakout. Price hovered near the upper band for a brief period, indicating high volatility, but quickly contracted back into the middle band. This consolidation may signal a temporary pause in directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was extremely low for the first 6.5 hours, with nearly no trading. A sudden spike occurred at 21:45, followed by a modest increase. Total turnover was low but did confirm the 21:45 rally. The lack of sustained volume during the consolidation phase suggests the market is still in a test phase and may require stronger participation to confirm a breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 21:45–04:00 ET move, 3004 MXN aligns closely with the 61.8% level, suggesting strong near-term support. If the price breaks below this level, the next key support would be at 2988 MXN (38.2%).

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the reliability of RSI signals in this market, a backtesting strategy could be applied using the overbought condition (RSI > 70) as a short entry trigger. Given the recent behavior of SOLMXN, where RSI spiked but failed to sustain the move higher, a close of the short position could be considered when RSI falls below 50, aligning with the consolidation phase seen in the 24-hour chart. Using a 14-day RSI on daily data and applying it to a relevant index or large-cap ETF (e.g., SPY or QQQ) could help determine the robustness of this strategy over a longer horizon. Position sizing could be set to a fixed notional short to maintain simplicity.