Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) 24-Hour Analysis

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• SOLMXN dropped to 3960 MXN, forming a 9-hour downtrend before a sharp rebound to 4067 MXN.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared on 19:45 ET, followed by a strong reversal at 09:00 ET.
• Volume surged at 09:00 ET and 10:30 ET, confirming key reversal levels.
• RSI showed oversold conditions in the early morning, suggesting possible short-term buying interest.
• Price remained within tight Bollinger Bands for most of the session, indicating low volatility.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 4087 MXN on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 4087 MXN, dipped to a low of 3960 MXN, and closed at 4030 MXN on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window was 9.124 SOL, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 36,800 MXN (based on closing prices).

The structure of the 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a clear bearish bias for most of the session, especially between 19:45 ET and 04:45 ET, where the price fell from 4087 MXN to 3960 MXN — a 3.09% decline. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET, with a large candle body confirming the downward shift in sentiment. This was followed by a long period of consolidation and minimal price movement until 09:00 ET, when the price reversed sharply upward, forming a bullish engulfing pattern that pushed the price back to 4067 MXN. This reversal appears to have been supported by a key support level around 3960 MXN and possibly by algorithmic buying pressure as seen in the volume spike at that time.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are bearish, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period MA late in the session. This bearish crossover may indicate further short-term downside potential. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are aligned in a neutral to slightly bearish configuration, suggesting that the longer-term trend remains unchanged.

MACD lines were bearish for most of the day, with a bearish crossover forming around 16:00 ET and a subsequent bearish divergence from the price action until the early morning. RSI hit oversold conditions around 04:45 ET, which may have triggered some short-covering or bargain buying. Bollinger Bands showed a tightening before the 09:00 ET reversal, suggesting a potential breakout was building. Price closed the session near the upper band, which could indicate a possible continuation of the rebound — at least in the short term.

Looking ahead, the key levels to watch over the next 24 hours include the 4030 MXN closing level as immediate support and 4067 MXN as a potential resistance. If the price breaks above this resistance with strong volume, it could indicate a short-term bullish reversal. However, traders should remain cautious of potential profit-taking if the price retests the 4030 MXN level. The market appears volatile and range-bound, with the potential for sharp moves depending on macroeconomic catalysts or market sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on using a combination of RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands to identify overextended price moves and potential reversal points. Given the data, the strategy would have entered a short position at the bearish engulfing pattern on 19:45 ET and exited at the 04:45 ET consolidation phase. A long position could have been triggered at the bullish engulfing pattern at 09:00 ET and held through to the 10:30 ET pullback. The strategy may be improved by incorporating volume filters to confirm entry and exit points, as seen in the 09:00 ET reversal where volume spiked. This could increase the reliability of trades and reduce false signals.