Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) as of 2025-11-06

Summary
• Price opened at 2988.0 and closed at 2974.0, with a high of 3037.0 and low of 2960.0.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged at 3037.0 with volume dipping to near-zero levels.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with price dropping below key support at 2988.0.

Over the past 24 hours, Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) opened at 2988.0 (12:00 ET − 1), surged to a high of 3037.0, dipped to a low of 2960.0, and closed at 2974.0 (12:00 ET). Total volume was 30.744 and total turnover was consistent, with notable dips in liquidity during key reversal intervals.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels were identified at 2974.0 and 2960.0, with 3037.0 acting as a resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 3037.0 after an initial push higher, followed by a sharp pullback. Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a short-term downtrend, with price closing below the 20 and 50-period lines. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-day moving averages remain distant, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish bias on a broader timeframe, though recent behavior is bearish.

MACD showed a negative crossover on the 15-minute chart, signaling weakening momentum after the initial rally. RSI dipped below 30 during the overnight session, hinting at potential oversold conditions, but price failed to rebound convincingly. Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the drop to 2960.0, with price hovering near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility and bearish pressure.

Volume spiked briefly during the 23:15 and 23:30 timeframes as price retested 3037.0, but faded afterward, particularly as price moved lower. Turnover confirmed the lack of buying interest at higher levels, especially between 01:00 and 04:00 ET, as price moved sideways. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 3037.0 high to 2960.0 low highlighted 2988.0 as the 38.2% level and 2974.0 as the 61.8% level, with the latter now acting as short-term support.

SOLMXN may remain under pressure in the near term unless it can reclaim the 2988.0 level. However, liquidity remains low, and a break below 2960.0 could accelerate bearish momentum. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of oversold exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-based backtest (RSI 14 < 30, 3-day exit) performed poorly over the 2022-2025 period, with a total return of -36.9% and an annualized return of -5.0%. Despite identifying oversold conditions, the strategy failed to capture profitable rebounds, as evidenced by a negative average trade of -1.45% and a high drawdown of 58.7%. These results suggest that overbought/oversold conditions alone may not be sufficient for success in this market, and additional filters or timeframes may be needed.