Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) — 2025-10-14 24-Hour Summary

• SOLMXN traded in a tightening range early, then surged to 3,914 MXN before a sharp reversal into the session close.
• Key 15-minute candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing pattern and a bearish evening star near intraday highs.
• Volume spiked during the upside move but collapsed sharply as price reversed, signaling potential exhaustion.
• RSI reached overbought territory during the high, while MACD showed a bearish divergence as price peaked.
• A key support level emerged at 3,624 MXN, where price consolidated for nearly six hours after the sell-off.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 3,584 MXN on October 13 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 3,914 MXN by early morning, only to collapse to a low of 3,583 MXN as the session ended. The 24-hour volume totaled 22.215 SOL with a notional turnover of ~83,457,692 MXN. Price formed a textbook bullish engulfing pattern at 3,673 MXN and a bearish evening star at 3,850 MXN, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Resistance is forming around 3,874–3,914 MXN, with support consolidating near 3,624 MXN and 3,584 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure suggests a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. A strong bullish engulfing pattern at 18:00 ET-1 (16:30 ET) marked the start of a sharp rally. However, the market could not sustain the upward thrust, as a bearish evening star and a large bearish candle at 03:45 ET-1 (23:45 ET) reversed the trend. These patterns may signal a short-term topping process, with sellers regaining control after the 3,914 MXN peak. A bearish harami at 04:00 ET (00:00 ET-1) and a potential 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 3,768 MXN also reinforced the bearish narrative.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment during the early rally, but by the afternoon they had flipped into a bearish crossover. This reinforces the bearish divergence noted in the candlestick structure. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are converging, indicating that the short-term trend is under pressure from the medium-term trend. A breakdown below the 200-period moving average could intensify bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish signal during the initial rally but turned bearish as the reversal took hold. A bearish crossover in the MACD histogram around 01:00 ET-1 (19:00 ET) coincided with the first bearish candle. The RSI reached overbought levels (75–80) at the top of the move and then entered a sharp sell-off phase, dropping to 30 in under four hours. This rapid RSI correction and bearish divergence with price action suggest that the recent rally was not supported by strong conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the upside move, pushing price toward the upper Bollinger Band at 3,914 MXN. The subsequent sell-off pulled the price well below the middle band, reaching the lower band at 3,624 MXN. This suggests that the market may have been overextended at the top and is now consolidating at the bottom. If price stays above the middle band, the volatility may compress again, but a break below the lower band could signal an acceleration in the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally to 3,914 MXN but dropped off during the sell-off, indicating that buyers were exhausted while sellers entered the market with minimal resistance. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at the high and falling sharply as the reversal progressed. The lack of volume during the sell-off suggests the move may not be panic-driven, but rather a calculated response to profit-taking or bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 3,584 MXN to 3,914 MXN shows key retracement levels at 3,768 MXN (38.2%) and 3,669 MXN (61.8%). Price found support at 3,624 MXN, which is below the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential oversold condition. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the previous week’s high (3,914 MXN) is near 3,768 MXN, which could act as a key resistance if the rally resumes.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at 3,850 MXN and the subsequent breakdown, a backtesting strategy could be tested on the "Bearish-Engulfing → buy at the pattern’s close, exit at the very next close" model. This strategy is designed to capture short-term reversals where bearish conviction is strong enough to create a clear pattern. The pattern occurred at 20:00 ET-1 (16:00 ET), with the close at 3,836 MXN. A buy signal at this close and an exit at the next candle’s close (20:15 ET-1 / 16:15 ET) would result in a flat trade, as both close and open were 3,836 MXN. While this example did not yield a return, backtesting over a broader dataset could refine the strategy’s effectiveness.