Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) on 2025-10-08

• SOLMXN opened at 4095 and reached a high of 4130 before closing at 4060 on 2025-10-08.
• Price action showed consolidation near key resistance levels with bearish divergence in later hours.
• Low volume and turnover suggest limited conviction, despite short-term bullish spikes.
• RSI hovered in neutral territory while MACD signaled weakening momentum.
• Volatility remained compressed near the 20-period Bollinger Band midline, suggesting potential for a breakout.

Market Summary

Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) opened at 4095 on 2025-10-07 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 4130, before ultimately closing at 4060 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume amounted to 44.181, with a turnover of approximately 181,165 MXN. The session was marked by a late-night bearish breakdown below key support levels, followed by a morning consolidation around 4060.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key high at 4130, which failed to hold as a resistance, leading to a breakdown and retesting of the 4100 level. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 17:00 ET candle, followed by a sharp decline into the early hours of 2025-10-08. A second wave of selling pressure pushed price below 4080, triggering a bearish spiral that ended with a final close at 4060. Notably, the 4060–4065 range appears to be forming as a short-term support cluster.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both above price by the end of the session, indicating bearish momentum. Price spent much of the day below both MAs, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50-period daily MA remains above the recent close, suggesting that the bearish bias is consistent across timeframes. MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning, confirming the breakdown. RSI remained in neutral to mildly oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term bounce but not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility remained compressed for most of the session, with price hovering near the 20-period Bollinger Band midline. A sharp bearish move in the early hours of 2025-10-08 led to a retraction to the lower band, which was quickly absorbed. This suggests limited volatility and a lack of strong conviction on either side. A breakout above 4065 or below 4043 could trigger a new phase of volatility.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume was unevenly distributed, with the most significant spikes occurring during the breakdown below 4100 and the final consolidation above 4060. Turnover mirrored this, with the largest notional value seen in the 04:15 ET candle (10.692 SOL) and again in the final candle at 4065. Price and turnover diverged during the early morning sell-off, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 4095 to 4130 swing identified 4115 as the 61.8% level, which was tested and rejected. The 38.2% retracement at 4111.5 was also a key point of resistance. In the morning breakdown, price retested the 61.8% level of the 4130–4043 swing at 4070.5 but found support at the 38.2% level near 4060. This supports the case for 4060–4065 as a short-term pivot zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be constructed based on the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 17:00 ET and the subsequent breakdown below 4100. The strategy could trigger a short position upon a close below 4100 with a target at 4043 and a stop-loss above 4130. This aligns with the observed Fibonacci support levels and the bearish divergence in the MACD. A trailing stop could be added once the price consolidates above 4065 to capture any potential short-term bounce.