Market Overview for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS)

• SOLARS posted a 24-hour low at 278,385 after a sharp intraday sell-off.
• Price action shows a bearish momentum shift with RSI trending into oversold territory.
• High volatility and a large-volume candle near 293,210 highlight critical resistance.
• Bollinger Bands widened mid-session, indicating a period of price uncertainty and range expansion.
• Volume spiked during the breakdown below 300,000, confirming bearish conviction.

SOLARS opened at 315,233 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 315,930 before closing at 278,385 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The 24-hour period saw total trading volume of 524.961 and turnover of 140,434,798. Price action featured a bearish breakdown below key support levels, with volatility peaking around 21:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 304,400 before collapsing to 293,210, followed by a large-volume bearish candle. A doji appeared at 285,723 as buying pressure attempted to push price higher but failed. Key support levels identified include 278,385 and 279,324, while resistance sits at 300,000 and 307,887.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line into bearish territory around 21:30 ET. The 50-period average acted as a temporary floor before the breakdown. On the daily chart, price closed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative at 21:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI plunged into oversold territory below 30 for much of the session, signaling potential exhaustion in the sell-off. However, RSI failed to bounce decisively above 40 in the final hours, indicating weak follow-through buying.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply between 20:00 and 22:00 ET, with price trading near the upper band before breaking down below the lower band. The 24-hour Bollinger Band width increased by ~22%, showing heightened uncertainty in the market. Price has remained near the lower band since 22:00 ET.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 9.5 on the candle that closed at 293,210, confirming bearish conviction. Turnover expanded significantly in that period as price dropped nearly 6%. However, buying volume dried up below 290,000, with most candles showing zero or minimal volume. Price and turnover diverged in the final 4 hours, with turnover falling despite continued price decline, suggesting exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fibonacci level was placed at 298,144, which failed to hold during the breakdown. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 280,895 has now become a short-term support. A 61.8% daily retracement level sits near 261,878 if the downtrend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical landscape, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting SOLARS when it breaks below a key Fibonacci level or a key moving average, with a stop-loss placed just above the most recent bullish candle. A trailing stop could be used as volatility expands and support levels are tested. This approach could be validated using historical data from similar bearish breakouts in October 2024 and March 2025, where early short entries captured significant downward moves.