Market Overview for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS)

• SOLARS dropped 3.6% over 24 hours, closing at 345,475 ARS amid fading bullish momentum and heavy intraday volatility.
• A 5.7% intraday high-low range and diverging volume patterns suggest uncertainty in price direction.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum, with price near the 38.2% Fibonacci level on the daily chart.
• Bollinger Band contraction and lack of follow-through on price rebounds indicate a potential consolidation phase.
• Low turnover during key resistance tests raises questions about conviction in the bearish trend.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) opened at 357,935 ARS, reached a high of 360,739 ARS, and closed at 345,475 ARS after a session low of 344,557 ARS. Total volume was 57.91 units, and notional turnover stood at 19,377,110 ARS for the 24-hour period.

The 15-minute OHLCV data shows a volatile path, beginning with a bullish breakout attempt early in the session followed by a sharp reversal and a bearish breakdown. Key resistance levels formed around 360,000 ARS and 358,000 ARS, both of which failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 17:15 ET, followed by a deep red candle confirming bearish dominance. A doji at 18:15 ET signaled indecision. The price eventually tested a key Fibonacci level at 346,700 ARS (38.2% retracement of the 24-hour swing), but failed to find support there.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover late in the session, reinforcing the downward trend. The daily chart’s 50- and 100-period moving averages continue to trend lower, indicating broader bearish momentum.

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The MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The RSI dipped below 30 for a brief period, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to rebound convincingly. Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly during the mid-session lull, indicating a period of low volatility, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke below the lower band. Price action remains within the 38.2%–61.8% Fibonacci range of the daily swing, suggesting further consolidation or a test of 343,000 ARS as a key support level is possible.

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Looking ahead, SOLARS appears to be consolidating in a bearish channel with the 20SMA and 50SMA aligned downward. A break below 345,000 ARS could trigger a test of 343,000 ARS, with a potential breakdown below 340,000 ARS likely to accelerate further selling pressure. However, a rebound above the 350,000 ARS level could reinvigorate bullish sentiment. Investors should remain cautious due to the divergence in volume during price reversals, which suggests a lack of conviction in either direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves a reversal-based approach using Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI divergences to identify potential entry points in a consolidating trend. Traders would look for RSI to dip below 30 (oversold) while price remains within a defined Fibonacci range—such as the 38.2%–61.8% zone in this case—to initiate long positions. Stop-loss would be placed below the most recent swing low, and take-profit targets would align with key Fibonacci levels or moving averages. Given SOLARS’s recent behavior—showing oversold readings without a strong reversal—the strategy may underperform unless a strong breakout or reversal forms. This aligns with the current setup, where price remains range-bound and volume remains muted, suggesting the strategy could struggle without a clear breakout from the 345,000–350,000 ARS range.