Market Overview: SKALE/Tether USDt (SKLUSDT) – 2025-09-11

• Price action shows a bearish bias with a 24-hour low of 0.02816 and a high of 0.02877.
• Momentum indicators suggest a potential overbought condition late in the session.
• Volatility has been relatively stable, though volume spikes occurred in midday trading.
• Notable bearish patterns appear in the 19:45–20:30 ET range, including a long lower shadow and bearish engulfing.
• Price appears to consolidate within a narrowing range ahead of a potential breakout.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, SKALE/Tether USDt (SKLUSDT) opened at 0.02868 and closed at 0.02818, reaching a high of 0.02877 and a low of 0.02794 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume was 67,941,469.0 SKL, with a total notional turnover of $1,913,016.39 USD.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish bias over the last 24 hours, with a key support level forming at 0.02816–0.02818, as confirmed by the 16:00–16:45 ET session. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible during the 19:30–19:45 ET period, with a long lower shadow and a large real body confirming downward pressure. A potential resistance cluster forms near 0.0285–0.02857, which has repelled bullish attempts on two occasions. A doji candle appears at 05:45–06:00 ET, signaling indecision and a possible reversal point in the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a bearish crossover for the past two hours, reinforcing the downward trajectory. The 50-period MA currently sits near 0.02842, while the 20-period MA is slightly lower at 0.02839. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.02850, the 100-period at 0.02863, and the 200-period at 0.02874, all forming a bearish alignment, with price below all key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative at -0.000008 with a bearish histogram, indicating waning momentum despite a recent bounce around 02:00–03:00 ET. The RSI has dropped to 40.2 by 12:00 ET, suggesting oversold conditions but not a guaranteed reversal. A potential overbought condition was seen in the late session at 01:30–02:30 ET, with RSI peaking at 62.3, followed by a sharp pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been relatively stable over the last 24 hours, with price fluctuating within the Bollinger Band envelope. A contraction in band width was observed from 00:30–01:15 ET, indicating a potential breakout. Price closed near the lower band at 0.02818, suggesting the continuation of a bearish trend unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30–20:00 ET and 12:45–13:00 ET sessions, with the latter reaching 8.78 million SKL and $245,867 USD in turnover. This aligns with bearish price action during those windows, providing confirmation of the downward trend. A divergence between volume and price occurred in the 20:15–21:00 ET period, where volume declined while price continued to drop, hinting at a possible exhaustion of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels derived from the 0.02794–0.02877 swing show that price closed near the 61.8% retrace level at 0.02818, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend toward the 78.6% level at 0.02805 or even the 100% level at 0.02794.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could utilize the 20-period and 50-period MA crossover as a signal filter, combined with RSI divergence. For example, a long signal could be triggered when the 20 MA crosses above the 50 MA, and RSI shows a bullish divergence (price lower low, RSI higher low). A stop-loss could be placed below a key support level confirmed by candlestick structure or Bollinger Bands. Given the current alignment of indicators, this strategy would have missed a long signal but could be applied to future bullish breaks above the 0.0284 resistance level.