Market Overview: SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) on 2025-10-22

• SKLUSDT declined 1.69% over 24 hours, with a bearish close at $0.01873 after a sharp sell-off post-17:00 ET.
• Volume surged 2.5× during the decline, confirming bearish momentum with no immediate signs of reversal.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, but lack of follow-through buying raises risks of a deeper pullback.
• Volatility increased as prices traded below a 20-period MA, signaling short-term weakness and potential for a bounce.

SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) opened at $0.01976 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.01993, and closed at $0.01873 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. The 24-hour volume was 36,102,128.6 and turnover amounted to $682,664. The price has displayed bearish momentum, with a sell-off intensifying in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The price declined into a key support area around $0.01930–$0.01870, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming post-17:00 ET. A long lower wick near the 20-period moving average (0.01983) suggests initial resistance, but a breakdown below the 0.01919 level confirmed a stronger bearish bias. A potential bounce from the 0.01852–0.01865 range could signal a short-term reversal, but a failure to close above 0.01900 may trigger further declines.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (20-MA) at 0.01983 and 50-period MA at 0.01960 both crossed below the price, forming a bearish crossover. The 200-period daily MA is at 0.01920, which may serve as a psychological floor. The price is currently below all three key moving averages, indicating a strong bearish trend in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative and diverged from price, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 14-period RSI is at 29.5, entering oversold territory, but without a corresponding bullish reversal in price or volume, a bounce may lack conviction. A close above 0.01900 is needed to trigger a meaningful recovery in RSI and MACD.

Bollinger Bands

The price has moved to the lower Bollinger Band, with a volatility contraction seen earlier in the session. The widening bands post-17:00 ET confirm a breakout in the bearish direction. If price remains below 0.01900, the lower band may continue to act as dynamic resistance, limiting upside potential.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during the sell-off from 17:00 to 21:00 ET, indicating increased bearish participation. Turnover also rose in line with the price decline, showing no divergence. However, volume has since tapered off, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the downward move, but not a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels from the key swing high at 0.01993 to the low at 0.01852 show a 61.8% retracement at 0.01900 and 38.2% at 0.01896. A test of these levels could trigger a pause or consolidation, but a breakdown below 0.01870 would confirm a deeper pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a classic RSI-oversold strategy to SKLUSDT would involve entering long positions when the RSI 14 drops below 30, with a 3-day holding period. The current RSI of 29.5 aligns with the entry condition, but without a strong follow-through in volume and price, such a signal may lack conviction. A backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22 could quantify the viability of this approach, particularly in volatile altcoin cycles like SKLUSDT.