Market Overview for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• SKLUSDT tested key support at $0.0170–0.0172 before rebounding with a bullish reversal pattern.
• Volatility spiked mid-day as price collapsed below $0.0200, with volume surging to over 32M tokens.
• RSI oversold below 30, signaling potential bounce, while Bollinger Bands compressed during consolidation.
• Price closed near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier sell-off, suggesting possible near-term resistance.
• Momentum remains mixed with MACD flattening, suggesting short-term indecision ahead of key support.

SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) opened at $0.02257 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01796 as of 2025-10-11 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $0.02287 (high) to $0.00541 (low), with total volume of ~167 million tokens and a turnover of ~$36.4 million. Price behavior showed clear bearish exhaustion and a potential short-term rebound.

Structure & Formations

The price of SKLUSDT showed a significant bearish breakdown from ~$0.0225 to ~$0.0170 over the first half of the day, forming a strong bear trend. Key support levels emerged around $0.0170–0.0172, where multiple 15-minute candles showed bullish reversal patterns, including a morning star-like formation and bullish hammers. Resistance appears near the $0.0182–0.0183 range, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the initial drop. A doji formed near $0.01816, indicating potential indecision at that level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 20-period moving faster to the downside. Price closed above the 50-period line in the last few hours, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at ~$0.0200 acts as a critical psychological level. Price remains below the 200-period MA (~$0.0240), indicating a broader bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned flat in the last 24 hours, with a bearish crossover and histogram showing a slight divergence. The RSI bottomed near 30 in the early morning, signaling oversold conditions. A rebound off that level appears to have occurred, but momentum remains weak. If the RSI fails to break above 40 with increasing volume, further consolidation or a deeper test of support could be likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the initial breakdown, with price hitting the lower band near $0.00541. However, after the rebound, volatility has contracted again, with the price currently trading within the bands. The narrowing of the bands suggests a potential breakout could be imminent. If the price sustains a move above the upper band or below the lower band, it could signal the start of a new trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically during the early part of the day, with over 32 million tokens traded in a single 15-minute candle at $0.01704. This coincided with a sharp drop in price, indicating a heavy sell-off. More recently, volume has declined, suggesting the strength of the rebound may be limited. Notional turnover mirrored the volume trends, confirming the bearish breakdown and weak bullish confirmation in the latest uplegs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major 24-hour swing from ~$0.0225 to ~$0.0170, the 61.8% level (~$0.0182) is a key target for the current rebound. Price is currently testing this level, with a potential reversal expected if the level holds. On the 15-minute chart, minor retracements at ~$0.0180–0.0182 have been tested multiple times, indicating a high probability of near-term consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be to look for a bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or a morning star) at key support levels like $0.0170–0.0172, confirmed by a close above the 50-period MA (~$0.0181) and rising RSI above 40. A stop-loss could be placed below the previous swing low (~$0.0175), with a target near $0.0185–0.0190. This setup would test the strength of the current rebound and validate whether a short-term bullish trend is forming. The strategy aligns with the observed price structure and Fibonacci levels, making it a data-driven, actionable hypothesis for the next 24–48 hours.