Market Overview for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• Price surged to 0.02605 intraday before consolidating near 0.02507, closing 0.64% lower.
• Strong volume spikes coincided with key resistance levels, signaling potential reversal or breakout.
• RSI oversold readings suggest short-term bounce potential, though momentum remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during peak volatility, with price retesting lower band.
• On-balance volume indicates divergence during pullback, hinting at weakening bearish conviction.

The SKALE/Tether pair (SKLUSDT) opened at 0.02489 on October 2, 2025, reached a high of 0.02605, and closed at 0.02507 by 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 84.9 million tokens, with a notional turnover of $2,133,690. The price action showed a sharp intraday rally driven by a large volume bar at 18:45 ET, followed by a broad consolidation phase and a minor bearish close.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart displayed a bullish failure swing from 0.02544 to 0.02605, followed by a broad-range consolidation. The price failed to hold the 0.0258 level and retraced to test the 0.0254-0.0256 support range. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 0.02582 to 0.0258 level, which could signal further bearish bias. A doji formed near 0.02507, hinting at indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bearish alignment, with the 20-period line crossing below the 50-period line in a death cross formation. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines remain in a downtrend, with the 50-period line continuing to lag behind the 200-period line. The price remains below the 100-period moving average, indicating a bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp bearish divergence during the peak rally at 0.02605, followed by a bearish crossover into negative territory. The RSI indicator dropped to 30, indicating oversold conditions, which could support a short-term bounce. However, the momentum remains bearish with RSI trending lower rather than forming a bullish reversal pattern.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the intraday high at 0.02605, with price reaching the upper band. The subsequent consolidation saw price retest the lower band, with a closing near the lower third of the bands. The contraction in volatility during the consolidation phase may suggest a potential breakout is imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at the 18:45 ET candle when the price hit 0.02605, with a volume of 14.2 million tokens, suggesting a liquidity zone or a reversal cluster. However, the subsequent pullback was accompanied by relatively lower volume, indicating weakening bullish conviction. Notional turnover was highest during the 18:45-19:15 ET window and dropped significantly in the late session, suggesting reduced participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the intraday high of 0.02605 and the subsequent low of 0.02507, the 38.2% level is at 0.02552, while the 61.8% level is at 0.02522. The price has tested the 61.8% retracement level, which may now act as a key support area. On the daily chart, the recent low is testing a 61.8% retracement level of the longer-term bearish move, suggesting a possible near-term bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach, targeting bounces from the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 0.02522 and the 38.2% level at 0.02552. A long entry could be placed when price closes above 0.02522 with rising volume, and a stop loss below the last swing low. A short entry could be initiated on a break below 0.02507, with a target at 0.02489 and a stop above the recent high. This aligns with the RSI oversold readings and volume divergence, supporting the hypothesis of a possible short-term bounce followed by bearish continuation.