Market Overview: SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) on 2025-09-22

• SKLUSDT declined from 0.02738 to 0.02439, showing bearish momentum.
• A sharp drop after 00:00 ET-1 saw volume surge to 23,957,273, indicating aggressive selling.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum with no overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded significantly as the price moved below key Fibonacci retracement levels.
• Price remains in a bearish channel with no immediate signs of reversal.

SKLUSDT opened at 0.02735 on 2025-09-21 at 16:00 ET, hit a high of 0.02738, fell to a low of 0.0235, and closed at 0.02439 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 113,942,885, with notional turnover reaching $2,821,694. The pair displayed a clear bearish bias, with sharp selling pressure emerging after the 00:00 ET-1 time frame.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart revealed multiple bearish patterns. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around 02:30 ET-1, confirming the reversal from a prior consolidation phase. A second key bearish pattern, a dark cloud cover, appeared at 06:15 ET. Additionally, multiple doji appeared in the 05:00–06:00 ET-1 range, signaling indecision and a potential breakdown. Key support levels appear to be forming around 0.0245–0.0247 and 0.0240–0.0242, with 0.0245 marking a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the recent bearish leg. Resistance levels are likely to be found at 0.0248–0.0250 (61.8% retracement) and 0.0255–0.0257.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish control. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in a classic death cross formation around 03:00 ET-1. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.0267, and the 200-period MA is at 0.0271, suggesting a bearish trend that could continue unless the price breaks back above these averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the 24-hour window, with the histogram widening as the price declined. The MACD crossover occurred at 03:00 ET-1, confirming the bearish shift. The RSI dropped below 30 at 01:15 ET-1 and remained in oversold territory until 05:00 ET-1, where it briefly rebounded to 45 but failed to break above 50. This suggests weak bearish momentum but limited upside potential in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected increased volatility during the bearish phase, with the price breaking below the lower band at 00:15 ET-1. The bands widened significantly between 00:00 and 02:00 ET-1, indicating high volatility and strong selling pressure. The price has since remained near the lower band, suggesting potential for further downward movement if the trend continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 00:15 ET-1, reaching 23,957,273, the highest of the 24-hour period. This coincided with a sharp drop to 0.02483 from 0.02686, indicating aggressive liquidation. Turnover also surged during this time, with the majority of turnover occurring in the first five hours of the period. Volume and turnover remained below average for most of the 24-hour window, suggesting a consolidation phase after the initial sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent bearish leg from 0.02738 to 0.02439 saw the price reach the 38.2% retracement level at 0.0259 and the 61.8% level at 0.0245. The price closed at 0.02439, slightly below the 61.8% level, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend. A bounce to test 0.0245 may occur before any further decline, but a break below 0.0240 could lead to a test of the 0.0235 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish confirmation from moving averages, MACD, and volume spikes, a backtesting strategy that targets short positions on SKLUSDT during bearish engulfing and dark cloud cover patterns on the 15-minute chart could be considered. A stop-loss should be placed above the 20-period moving average, and a take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A trailing stop might be used after a rebound to 0.0245 to lock in gains while allowing for a potential continuation of the trend. The strategy would benefit from filtering trades with high volume and low RSI (<30) for stronger bearish signals.