Market Overview for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) on 2025-09-19

• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.0267 amid a bearish trend.
• Volume surged in the afternoon, coinciding with a sharp price correction.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions at the close, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.0278, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating elevated volatility.

SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) opened at $0.02785 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02689 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.02807 and a low of $0.02659. Total volume was 41,538,600 SKL, and turnover reached $1,139,133. The 24-hour session saw a bearish bias with increasing bearish conviction and notable intraday volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours showed a key bearish pivot forming around $0.0278, where a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the breakdown from a consolidation phase. A notable support level emerged near $0.0276 after a pullback from $0.02807. Price then found another resistance zone at $0.0279 and failed to break through, suggesting ongoing bearish control. A doji formed at $0.02785 in the late evening, indicating indecision and potential reversal signals, though this was quickly invalidated by a sharp decline into the next session.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the price, reinforcing the bearish trend. MACD lines show a consistent bearish divergence with the price, indicating fading bullish momentum. RSI hit a low of 24 in the final hour, suggesting oversold conditions, which may support a short-term bounce. However, the RSI has not yet shown a clear reversal, implying bearish continuation could be in play for the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened during the afternoon as price moved to a 24-hour low near $0.0267, indicating rising volatility. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential short-term oversold conditions. However, the band contraction during the early morning hinted at a consolidation phase before the sharp bearish move, which often precedes a breakout or breakdown.

Volume and Turnover

Volume increased significantly as price declined, with the most notable spike occurring around 16:00–18:00 ET when the price dropped below $0.0278. This volume confirmed the bearish breakdown rather than indicating divergence. The intraday notional turnover aligned with the volume spike, reinforcing the strength of the bearish move. The low-to-close convergence with high volume suggests bearish exhaustion is still in process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 24-hour high of $0.02807 to the low of $0.02659 show key retracement levels at 38.2% ($0.02765) and 61.8% ($0.02727). Price briefly tested the 38.2% level twice but failed to hold it, indicating bearish momentum. A potential bounce may occur near the 61.8% retracement if bears lose control of the short-to-medium term trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question targets breakouts from Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart, particularly when confirmed by volume and RSI divergence. A long entry is considered at the 61.8% retracement of a defined swing low, with a stop below the 50% level and a target at the 23.6% level. This aligns with today’s move, where the 61.8% level is now near $0.02727, a potential area of interest for a rebound. A short entry could also be considered at the 38.2% level with a stop above the 50% retracement. This strategy would benefit from today’s bearish context and may provide a framework for navigating the expected volatility over the next 24 hours.