Market Overview for SHIBJPY: Volatility and Bearish Momentum in 24-Hour Window

• SHIBJPY opens at $0.001413, rises to $0.001427, then closes near $0.001383 amid heavy late selling.
• Price forms a bearish engulfing pattern mid-day and breaks below a key intraday support.
• Volatility expands sharply overnight as volume surges and turnover hits a 24-hour high.
• RSI enters oversold territory, while MACD shows bearish crossover and negative momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widen, reflecting increased uncertainty and potential for a mean-reversion or breakout.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001413 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.001427 before closing at 0.001383 at 12:00 ET the next day. The pair reached a low of 0.001379 amid increased bearish pressure. Over the 24-hour period, total volume exceeded 4.78 billion contracts, and turnover surged to over $6.7 million, indicating heightened market interest and volatility.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified around 0.001380–0.001385, where the price found temporary refuge following a sharp selloff after 06:00 ET. Resistance appeared to be broken around 0.001415–0.001420 after a mid-day bearish engulfing pattern suggested a shift in momentum. This formation was confirmed by a close below the previous candle’s open and low, signaling a potential bearish continuation.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period moving average crossed below the 100-period on the daily timeframe, suggesting a longer-term trend reversal may be underway. The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line after midday, indicating bearish momentum. RSI fell into the oversold region (< 30), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but not a full reversal of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly overnight, reflecting increased volatility as the price moved away from the mid-band and into the lower band. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the intraday high (0.001427) to the low (0.001379) coincided with the 0.001385 level, where the price consolidated briefly but failed to hold. This suggests further downward movement could be likely if key support levels are breached.

Volume and Turnover

The most intense volume spike occurred at 06:15 ET, with over 4.78 billion contracts traded, and the largest turnover of the day. This coincided with a sharp drop in price from ~0.001389 to ~0.001380, indicating aggressive shorting or liquidation. A divergence appears between price and volume later in the session, as price continued to decline but volume waned, suggesting the momentum may be exhausting.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was run using SHIBJPY, focusing on the Bearish-Engulfing candlestick pattern as a signal to open short positions. Daily close prices were used, and positions were held for a maximum of 5 calendar days. Given the large volume of SHIB trades and the alignment of USDT and JPY candle patterns, the strategy uses SHIB/USDT patterns as a proxy when SHIBJPY-specific data were unavailable. The backtest ran from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-06 and evaluated the performance of this approach without stop-loss or take-profit rules. The results include performance curves, trade logs, and key statistics that can be reviewed interactively.

Looking ahead, SHIBJPY may continue to test the 0.001380 level, with a potential break below triggering further bearish movement. However, a rebound from the 0.001385–0.001390 range could signal short-term relief. Investors should remain cautious, as divergences in volume and the oversold RSI hint at possible short-term volatility.