Market Overview for SHIBJPY on 2025-09-26

• SHIBJPY declined over 24 hours, closing at 0.001745 after a bearish reversal near 0.001787.
• High volatility observed in early session, with a sharp selloff below key support at 0.00176.
• Volume surged during the downturn, confirming bearish sentiment, but turnover diverged near the close.
• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum, with RSI in oversold territory suggesting potential for a bounce.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, indicating increased risk of a countertrend move.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001787 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.001789, and bottomed at 0.001731 before closing at 0.001745 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. Total volume amounted to 8.3 billion units, with notional turnover reaching ¥14.5 billion. The 24-hour candle ended bearish and wide-ranging, reflecting high volatility and indecision.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed a bearish reversal pattern during the early evening hours (ET), with a large bearish candle forming at 0.001787 followed by a strong decline to 0.00176. A notable doji appeared near 0.001763 in the late New York session, suggesting potential exhaustion in the downward move. Key resistance now appears near 0.001758–0.001763, while support levels are likely to be tested at 0.001741 and 0.001733 in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.001761) and 50-period MA (0.001763) are currently aligned above the price, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 20 MA crossed below the 50 MA (death cross) earlier in the session, adding to the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend for SHIBJPY.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the selloff and remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with bearish divergence observed in the histogram. The RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 30) in the final hours of the session, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, RSI failed to form a bullish divergence, suggesting that the bearish trend could persist despite the oversold condition.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early hours of the session, with the price dropping below the lower band by as much as 0.000024. This indicates a period of heightened volatility and potential for a countertrend move. The bands have since contracted slightly, suggesting that volatility may be easing, but caution is warranted as the price remains near key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp selloff, particularly in the 16:30–18:00 ET window, with over 500 million units traded during the most volatile 15-minute interval. However, notional turnover did not rise proportionally, indicating a divergence that could signal fading bearish conviction. The doji at 0.001763 was accompanied by a moderate volume spike but weak turnover, suggesting indecision among traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.001787 to 0.001731, key levels of interest include the 38.2% retracement at 0.001763 and 61.8% at 0.001750. The price briefly found support at the 61.8% level but failed to hold above it. For daily moves, the 61.8% retracement of the broader downtrend is near 0.001738, which may serve as a critical psychological level in the coming session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in MACD and the oversold RSI, a potential short-term reversal setup is in place. A backtest strategy could involve entering a long position upon a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.001763, with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% level at 0.001750. A take-profit target would be set near the nearest resistance at 0.001768. This setup could be tested using historical 15-minute data to assess the win/loss ratio and risk/reward profile, particularly during high-volatility periods such as the current session.