Market Overview: Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-11)

• SHIBJPY declines from a 24-hour high of ¥0.001951 to close at ¥0.001911, pressured by bearish momentum.
• A key bearish engulfing pattern forms at ¥0.001932-0.00192, suggesting potential continuation of the downward move.
• Volatility expanded mid-day with a sharp ¥0.001944-0.001905 range, accompanied by high turnover.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, indicating possible near-term support at ¥0.001911.
• Volume surged during the 03:30–06:00 ET window, suggesting increased participation during the downward phase.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at ¥0.001925 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of ¥0.001951 before closing at ¥0.001911 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of 3,357,545,815 SHIB and a notional turnover of ¥651,602,410 over 24 hours, reflecting heightened trading interest and bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a bearish bias with a key resistance forming around ¥0.001942–0.001948, where price stalled multiple times. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at ¥0.001932–0.001920 on 2025-09-10 17:30 ET, signaling a potential breakdown. A doji appeared at ¥0.001921 on 2025-09-11 05:30 ET, hinting at indecision near that level. The price also tested ¥0.001911 twice, the first as a support level and the second as a bearish reversal. This suggests that ¥0.001911 is a critical psychological and structural support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reflecting a strong bearish bias. Price closed below both, with the 50-period MA at ¥0.001930, further reinforcing the downward trajectory. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all in a bearish alignment, with the price below all three and the 200-period MA at ¥0.001942 indicating long-term bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the morning ET hours, confirming bearish momentum, while the histogram remained negative and expanding. The RSI reached an oversold level of 28, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI has not shown a convincing bullish reversal yet, and price remains below the 30 threshold. The divergence between the RSI and price action is weak, indicating a bearish continuation may still be in play.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 03:30–06:00 ET window as the price dropped from ¥0.001944 to ¥0.001905. The price remained below the lower band for several hours, indicating oversold conditions and heightened volatility. The current price sits near the middle band, suggesting some consolidation after the sharp decline. A further retest of the ¥0.001911 level may trigger a bounce if the lower band provides support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish phase from ¥0.001944 to ¥0.001905, with the largest single 15-minute volume spike at ¥0.001944 (¥0.001939), where 349,027,381 SHIB traded hands. Notional turnover reached its peak at ¥0.001944-0.001939 at ¥105 million. The price action and volume were well-aligned during the breakdown, with no clear divergence detected. This suggests that the bearish move had genuine conviction and is likely to continue unless strong bullish volume appears at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from ¥0.001905 to ¥0.001944, the 38.2% level is at ¥0.001927 and the 61.8% level is at ¥0.001919. The current price of ¥0.001911 is below the 61.8% level, indicating that the pair may be approaching a potential near-term support. If the price breaks ¥0.001911, the next Fibonacci level to watch is ¥0.001903, which has not yet been tested in this cycle.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy aims to identify short-term reversals using a combination of RSI (14) and volume divergence. It triggers a long entry when RSI dips into oversold territory (below 30) and volume increases while price consolidates below the lower Bollinger Band. A stop-loss is placed at the recent swing low, and a take-profit target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Based on today’s data, this setup could have provided a potential long entry at ¥0.001911, with a target at ¥0.001927. The strategy’s effectiveness will depend on how well the price holds the ¥0.001911 level and whether volume confirms a bullish reversal.