Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) – 2025-10-09

• SHIBJPY declined by -1.44% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.001843.
• Volatility remained moderate, with a 24-hour range of 0.001821–0.001898.
• Volume surged during the Asian and European sessions, with divergences in price and turnover in the late U.S. session.
• RSI showed bearish momentum, with values dipping into oversold territory.
• Price appears to be consolidating near key support levels, hinting at potential reversal setups.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001866 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08 and closed at 0.001843 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The pair reached a high of 0.001898 and a low of 0.001821, with total volume amounting to 1,002,415,985.0 and notional turnover reflecting bearish sentiment across all time zones.

Structurally, SHIBJPY formed a bearish continuation pattern, with multiple hanging man and shooting star candles during the 17:00–19:00 ET time frame. A key resistance level was identified at 0.001895, while support emerged at 0.001843–0.001848 during the Asian and European sessions. The 20-period 15-minute moving average crossed below the 50-period MA, confirming a bearish bias in the short term. The 50/100/200-period daily MAs show a similar bearish alignment, with the price now below all three, suggesting further downside potential.

The MACD histogram turned negative throughout the session, with the RSI dipping into the 28–32 range—well into oversold territory—around 08:00–10:00 ET. While this could indicate short-term overselling, divergence between price lows and RSI lows in the 16:00–18:00 ET period suggests a lack of bearish conviction. Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction during the early U.S. session, with the price trading near the lower band for much of the 24-hour period, signaling low volatility and consolidation.

Volume surged during Asian and European hours, with the highest turnover at 394,209,067.0 in the 08:45 ET candle, followed by a significant drop in activity after 10:00 ET. The notional turnover showed a divergence from price during the late U.S. session—despite continued price declines, volume waned, which could signal exhaustion in the short-term bearish move.

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.001898 to 0.001821, the price found support at the 61.8% level (0.001843) and showed some bounce activity. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest further support at 0.001830 and 0.001810, with the 38.2% retracement at 0.001861 acting as a potential resistance in the near term if the price retraces.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish alignment of the 20/50-period MAs and the RSI entering oversold territory, a potential short-term bounce or reversal setup may be forming. A backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below the 0.001848 level, with a stop loss above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.001843 and a take-profit target at 0.001821. Alternatively, a long position could be considered if the price breaks the 0.001848 level to the upside, with a stop below the 38.2% retracement at 0.001861. This setup aligns with the observed divergence in the RSI and MACD, suggesting a possible reversal or consolidation.