Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Price declined sharply from $1.164e-05 to $9.74e-05 during the session, ending near the intraday low.
• Volume surged over 500% during the initial dump, with massive notional turnover exceeding $599 billion.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish with RSI dipping into oversold territory and MACD forming a bearish crossover.
• Volatility expanded significantly as the price broke below key 15-minute and daily support levels.
• Divergence between price and volume highlights potential exhaustion in the bearish wave.

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at $1.154e-05 on October 10, 2025, hit a high of $1.167e-05, and fell to a low of $6.78e-06 before closing at $1.041e-05 on October 11, 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 1.0998e+15 SHIB, with a notional turnover of around $1.157e+11 USD, reflecting intense selling pressure.

The price action over the last 24 hours was dominated by a sharp bearish reversal, beginning around 19:30 ET with a massive volume spike. The breakdown below the 15-minute pivot support at $1.15e-05 was followed by a rapid descent, punctuated by several bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow at the session low. Key support levels observed included the 15-minute Fib 61.8% at $1.034e-05 and the daily Fib 78.6% at $1.021e-05, both of which were tested but not yet confirmed as valid support. Resistance remains at the 15-minute high of $1.167e-05 and the 20-EMA of $1.15e-05.

The 20- and 50-period 15-minute moving averages are both sloping downward, with the 50 crossing below the 20 to confirm a bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are also in a bearish alignment, with the 100-day line at $1.095e-05 currently acting as a resistance to any near-term recovery. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp decline, with price closing near the lower band on October 11, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

MACD crossed into bearish territory around 19:30 ET and remained negative, while the RSI reached oversold conditions, dipping below 30 by 21:30 ET. This indicates a possible exhaustion in the short-term bearish move. However, the RSI has yet to show a strong reversal signal. The divergence between falling prices and slightly rising volume during the final 24 hours suggests that while the bearish momentum is strong, it may be reaching a short-term limit. Investors should closely monitor volume and price action around the key 15-minute and daily Fib levels over the next 24 hours.

The Bollinger Bands and 20/50 EMA configuration on the 15-minute chart confirm a bearish trend, with price near the lower band and a bearish MACD crossover. RSI in oversold territory indicates a potential short-term reversal could occur, particularly if volume rises with a bullish candle near $1.034e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term reversal strategy could involve entering a long position at or above $1.034e-05, the 15-minute 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss placed below the 78.6% level at $1.021e-05. A take-profit target would be aligned with the 50-period EMA or a bullish candle closing above $1.05e-05, which would confirm a recovery in momentum. This strategy relies on RSI reaching oversold conditions and a divergence between price and volume as signals of a potential bottoming process. A trailing stop could be activated once the price breaks above the 20-EMA on the 15-minute chart, which is currently at $1.15e-05.