Market Overview for Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) as of 2025-10-01

• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at $0.3176 and closed at $0.3404 after a volatile 24-hour period.
• Price surged past key resistance levels, reaching a high of $0.3415 and hitting a low of $0.3172.
• High volume observed in the late-night to morning hours, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest strong upward momentum with no immediate signs of overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded as the price broke out of a consolidation pattern.

The Shentu/Tether pair (CTKUSDT) opened at $0.3176 on 2025-09-30 at 16:00 ET and closed at $0.3404 on 2025-10-01 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, it hit a high of $0.3415 and a low of $0.3172. Total volume reached 944,446.5 units, while total notional turnover amounted to approximately $312,440. This data highlights a strong bullish phase driven by both rising prices and volume.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour window showed a clear breakout from a tight consolidation phase, marked by a series of bullish engulfing and higher-low, higher-high formations. Key support levels were identified at $0.3172, $0.3185, and $0.3202, with resistance at $0.325, $0.3286, and $0.3349. A significant reversal from $0.3286 occurred after a strong bearish rejection, followed by a breakout past $0.335 and $0.340. The morning hours saw a powerful bullish engulfing pattern confirming the continuation of the upward move. A key resistance level of $0.3415 appears to be the next target, with a potential pullback expected if the move stalls.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bullish alignment, with the price trading well above both. The 20SMA has been trending upward and is now near $0.335, suggesting continued support for the bullish trend. The 50SMA is at around $0.333, further reinforcing the upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 SMA lines are closely aligned and trending upward, with the 50SMA at $0.329. The price remains above all three, indicating a strong continuation of the bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in bullish territory with a positive histogram and the signal line crossing above the histogram, signaling strong upward momentum. The RSI is at approximately 65, indicating moderate bullish strength without immediate overbought conditions. The divergence between volume and RSI remains minimal, suggesting the move is supported by strong on-chain activity. The RSI crossing above 55 confirms the strength of the bullish trend, with no immediate signs of a reversal or exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

The price has moved significantly outside the upper Bollinger Band for most of the 24-hour period, indicating high volatility and strong momentum. The bands themselves have widened, signaling an expansion in volatility. The price remains well above the 20-period moving average within the bands, suggesting the trend is intact. A retest of the upper band near $0.3415 is expected, with a potential reversal or consolidation possible if the price fails to break through.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked notably in the early morning hours, particularly between 05:15 and 07:45 ET, with a major volume spike of 98,388.5 units at $0.3286, confirming a significant bullish breakout. Notional turnover increased in tandem with price action, with the largest turnover spike near $0.3409. The price and volume appear to be aligned in a positive feedback loop, with rising volume supporting the upward move. However, a drop in volume in the afternoon hours suggests a potential pause in the trend before the next phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent swing from $0.3172 to $0.3415 show key levels at 38.2% ($0.3268), 50% ($0.3294), and 61.8% ($0.3320). The price has already moved above 61.8% and is approaching the 100% level at $0.3415. A successful breakout above $0.3415 would target the 127.2% extension at around $0.3456. The immediate support level is the 61.8% retracement at $0.3320, with a breakdown below that level signaling potential bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying breakouts using a combination of Bollinger Bands and RSI divergence. The hypothesis suggests that a breakout from the upper Bollinger Band, confirmed by a bullish RSI crossover above 50, leads to a high-probability continuation of the upward move. In this case, the breakout from $0.3349 to $0.3404 was accompanied by a RSI crossover above 55 and a strong volume increase, aligning with the strategy’s signals. A potential backtest would aim to validate whether these conditions lead to consistent returns in similar setups, with stop-loss levels placed below key support levels to manage risk.