Market Overview for Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.3101–$0.3387, with bearish momentum dominating the first half.
• A sharp rebound emerged post 12:00 ET with a 1.9% gain, driven by increased volume and buying pressure.
• Bollinger Bands and RSI signal a potential overbought condition, suggesting near-term profit-taking.
• High volume confirmed the recent rally, but divergence between price and turnover suggests mixed conviction.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.3246 and 0.3206 are critical for near-term direction.

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at $0.3172 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3133 on 2025-09-26 at the same hour. The 24-hour high reached $0.3387, while the low hit $0.3101. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 2,346,857, with a notional turnover of $693,676.

The price action showed a strong bearish bias early in the session, with a sharp decline from 17:00 to 20:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase. A bullish reversal emerged post 23:00 ET and continued into the next day, forming a hammer-like pattern and a bullish engulfing pattern around $0.3194–$0.3226. Key support levels were identified at $0.3185 (38.2% Fib) and $0.3166 (61.8% Fib), while resistance held at $0.3235 and $0.3256.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish breakdown from a prior bullish trend, with price testing and failing at a key support at $0.3185. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around $0.3204–$0.3226, indicating a potential reversal. A doji emerged at $0.3173–$0.3176, suggesting indecision in the market. Key resistance levels include $0.3211 and $0.3235, while support levels appear at $0.3166 and $0.3155.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the 20SMA and 50SMA crossing below the price action during the bearish phase, with the 20SMA recently crossing back above the 50SMA. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA crossed over, indicating a potential bearish-to-bullish shift. The 100DMA remained above the price, suggesting lingering bearish sentiment, but the short-term bullish crossover suggests a potential reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive in the last five 15-minute candles, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming a bullish crossover. RSI reached overbought territory at 74, indicating a potential pullback. However, the divergence between the RSI and price action suggests buyers may still be in control. The MACD and RSI together imply a mixed picture—momentum is bullish but caution is warranted due to overbought conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the morning hours, pushing prices to the upper Bollinger Band, with a retest of the lower band in the afternoon. The recent rally brought prices back into the middle band, suggesting a consolidation phase. The width of the bands indicates elevated volatility, but the price remains within bounds, suggesting no immediate breakouts are likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, with a peak of over 128,000 units at $0.3101. The bullish rebound was also accompanied by increasing volume, peaking at 78,000 units during the bullish engulfing pattern. Notional turnover confirmed the volume surges, indicating genuine buying pressure. However, a divergence between volume and price action emerged in the last three candles, suggesting mixed conviction among traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart include 38.2% at $0.3185 and 61.8% at $0.3166, which acted as temporary support. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracements align with recent support levels. A break above $0.3235 (78.6% Fib) could trigger a larger bullish move, but a retest of $0.3166 is expected before further upside.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish reversal and confirmed technical levels, a backtest strategy could be based on a long setup triggered by a bullish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a close above the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart and a RSI crossover above 50. Stop-loss could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.3166, with a take-profit at the 78.6% level at $0.3235. This setup would aim to capture a short-to-medium-term rally with a defined risk-to-reward ratio.