Market Overview for SEIJPY (2025-10-12)

• SEIJPY fell to 30.43 before rebounding, ending the day 5.5% lower.
• A major bearish breakdown occurred at 31.35 after a consolidation phase.
• Volume surged during the key 22:45–23:45 ET sell-off, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory, but price and indicator divergence suggests caution.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed pre-breakdown, signaling a breakout and increased volatility.

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 33.23 on October 11, 2025, and reached a high of 34.62 before closing at 34.62 at 12:00 ET on October 12. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 99,808.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 2,979,746.00 (SEIJPY × amount). The asset faced a significant bearish correction during the early hours of October 12, dropping to 30.43, before rallying modestly in the late trading session.

Structure & Formations

The price of SEIJPY developed a bearish breakout on October 12, confirming a breakdown below the 31.35–31.45 consolidation range. A key 15-minute candle formed at 22:45–23:45 ET (12:45–13:45 ET on the local time used in the input), which closed at 31.12 after a high of 31.26 and a low of 31.12, forming a bearish confirmation pattern. The following session saw a strong continuation of bearish momentum, with price failing to reclaim key support levels above 31.35.

A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared on the 15-minute chart at 19:15–19:30 ET, where the pair moved from 32.98 to 32.25. This was followed by a sharp bearish continuation through the 21:00–21:15 ET candle. A bearish trendline break below 31.45 confirmed a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA at 22:45 ET, forming a bearish death cross. For daily chart analysis, the 50-period MA was above the 100-period MA, but the 100-period MA was below the 200-period MA, indicating a weak trend with bearish bias. The price closed below all three moving averages, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line at 22:45 ET, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI fell into oversold territory (below 30) at 01:15–01:30 ET. However, the RSI failed to bounce off the oversold level and remained below it as price continued to fall, signaling potential exhaustion or continued selling pressure. The divergence between price and RSI suggests caution for short-term longs.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly between 22:45–23:45 ET, indicating a period of low volatility before the breakout. The price moved below the lower band on October 12, confirming a bearish breakout. The widening of the bands following the breakdown suggests increased volatility and potential continuation of the downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the critical breakdown phase (22:45–23:45 ET) and during the early morning continuation (01:15–01:30 ET), confirming the bearish trend. The largest single candle occurred at 22:45–23:45 ET with a volume of 5,793.0 units and a 0.14 move from 31.26 to 31.12. Notional turnover was high during these sessions, supporting the bearish narrative. However, in the late trading session, volume dipped, suggesting a potential pause in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 32.98 to 30.43 shows key levels at 31.73 (38.2%) and 31.11 (61.8%). The 61.8% level was retested at 04:00–04:15 ET (31.28) but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 34.62 to the low of 30.43 indicate potential support at 32.23 (38.2%) and 31.11 (61.8%), which may see renewed bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the confirmed bearish breakout and the formation of key patterns such as the bearish death cross and engulfing candles, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on short entries at the breakdown level of 31.35 with a stop above the 31.50–31.55 consolidation range. A trailing stop could be used on a 15-minute MACD crossover (12,26,9) as a signal for exiting the trade. The strategy could target 31.11 as the first Fibonacci objective (61.8%) and 30.83 as a second target if the trend continues. Volume spikes could be used as filters to confirm the strength of the move and to avoid false breakouts.