Market Overview for SEIJPY on 2025-10-03

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 44.27 before consolidating near 43.16
• Strong volume expansion observed during the bullish breakout phase
• MACD and RSI signal mixed momentum, suggesting potential consolidation
• Bollinger Bands show recent contraction, indicating possible volatility shift
• Downturn in price amid steady turnover implies bearish divergence

15-Minute Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY)

The Sei/Yen pair opened at 43.2 on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 44.27 before closing at 43.16 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Over the 24-hour period, the total traded volume was 270,242 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥11,500,000. Price action included a strong bullish breakout mid-session, followed by a sharp retrace to sub-43.30 levels.

Key support levels emerged around 43.20 and 43.30, with resistance testing at 43.60 and 43.90. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 05:00–05:30 ET, followed by a doji at 05:45 ET, signaling indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed over during the bullish breakout, indicating short-term momentum.

Price action showed a distinct bullish impulse during the overnight and early morning hours, with a sharp reversal occurring after 05:00 ET. This suggests that bullish momentum may be running out of steam and could be followed by a consolidation phase. RSI moved into overbought territory during the 03:00–04:00 ET window but has since retreated toward neutral levels.

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction around the 04:00–05:00 ET window, followed by a sharp expansion during the bullish phase. This pattern is typically associated with a breakout or breakout failure, suggesting that the current price may be testing the upper band for sustainability.

MACD formed a positive divergence during the overnight session, confirming bullish momentum during the breakout. However, the indicator has since flattened, suggesting waning strength. Volume increased sharply during the breakout but has since moderated, which could indicate a shift in market sentiment from aggressive to cautious.

Fibonacci retracements on the recent 15-minute swing (43.2 to 44.27) show 61.8% at 43.74 and 38.2% at 43.60, which may act as pivot levels for further movement. The 61.8% level has seen some price rejection, suggesting it could be a key area to watch over the next 24 hours.

The near-term outlook for SEIJPY appears cautiously bearish, with potential for a retest of the 43.16–43.30 range. Traders should monitor the 43.60 level for a potential rebound and keep an eye on divergence in volume and momentum indicators. As always, sudden news or macroeconomic factors could disrupt the expected price pattern.