Market Overview: SEIJPY on 2025-09-22

• Price declined from 46.83 to 43.03, forming bearish continuation patterns.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, but volume trends show bearish strength.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased sharply overnight.
• Key support at 43.0–43.5 with Fibonacci 61.8% near 43.41.
• Turnover spiked during the 6:15–7:00 ET window, confirming bearish momentum.

The SEIJPY pair opened at 46.55 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 46.99, and closed at 43.03 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 41.78. Total volume across 24 hours was 326,577 and notional turnover amounted to 14,420,878.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bearish bias, characterized by a broad descending wedge and key bearish patterns such as a dark cloud cover at the 00:15–00:30 ET timeframe and a morning star reversal failing at 00:45–01:00 ET. The 61.8% Fibonacci level at 43.41 became a resistance-turned-support, and a long lower shadow at 06:15–06:30 ET hinted at a possible reversal attempt. A key support level formed near 43.0–43.5 as the price consolidated after the major sell-off.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was bearishly aligned below the 50-period MA, with the price decisively below both. The daily chart saw the 50-period MA at 45.55, the 100-period at 46.27, and the 200-period at 46.68. The price remains well below all, confirming a long-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish momentum with the histogram contracting after a large bearish divergence. RSI bottomed around 32–34, entering oversold territory, but failed to reverse, suggesting bearish exhaustion may be in play. The lack of a bullish crossover in RSI suggests sellers still hold the initiative.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly. The price closed near the lower band at 43.03, a key indicator of oversold conditions. However, with the mid-band at 43.85, the price may test that level for possible bounce or further consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 6:15–7:00 ET window with a massive candle that saw 28,921 volume and a 44.0 to 42.92 drop. Turnover increased by over 10x in that window. The divergence between lower prices and higher turnover supports bearish continuation. However, late-day volume softened, indicating a possible loss of momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

The major swing from 46.99 to 41.78 saw 61.8% at 43.41 and 38.2% at 45.10. The price tested the 61.8% level twice and appears to have found some support there. A move above 45.10 would suggest a bearish exhaustion, while a break below 43.0 could trigger a test of the 38.2% level in the opposite direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the convergence of RSI and MACD divergence could offer insight into potential reversals. Specifically, a short entry trigger could be placed when RSI enters oversold territory below 30 and MACD shows bearish divergence, with a stop loss placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent behavior of these indicators, the strategy could be refined to include a volume filter, requiring a spike in notional turnover to confirm the move. This would help filter out false signals and align better with the current bearish trend.