Market Overview for SEIJPY on 2025-09-17

• SEIJPY opens at 46.92 and closes at 45.52, with a 24-hour low of 45.44 and high of 47.21.
• Price action shows significant bearish momentum with a near 4% drop over the 24-hour window.
• RSI drops below 30 into oversold territory, but volume does not confirm strong buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction before the sharp decline, indicating heightened volatility.
• Volume spikes to 24,165 during a sharp drop in the early session, aligning with price action.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17, SEIJPY opened at 46.92 and closed at 45.52 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by bearish momentum. The pair traded between a high of 47.21 and a low of 45.44, with total trading volume reaching 431,632. Total turnover was driven by several sharp price moves, particularly in the early morning hours. The pair ended 1.4 points, or nearly 3%, below its opening level.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish trend, with several engulfing bearish patterns and a deep doji near the 45.56 level at the close of the session. Key support levels include 46.50, 46.25, and now 45.50. Resistance appears to be retesting at 46.75 and 47.00 as the pair struggles to regain ground. A breakdown of the 45.50 level could lead to a retest of the 45.30–45.20 area. The formation suggests that bears currently dominate the short-term sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a steep downtrend, with the 50 SMA below the 20 SMA, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line in the late afternoon, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA alignment remains bearish, with price trading well below all major moving averages, reinforcing the downward bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remains in negative territory, with the histogram showing a gradual but consistent bearish divergence. The signal line crossed the MACD line in a bearish crossover during the early morning, aligning with the price drop. The RSI fell into oversold territory, dipping below 30 around 45.50, though this was not accompanied by a significant volume spike, suggesting a potential false signal or lack of buying interest to defend the price level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction during the mid-session, particularly around 2025-09-17 01:00 ET, indicating a period of consolidation. However, this was followed by a sharp break below the lower band, marking a significant volatility expansion. The current price is trading near the lower band, which may indicate further bearish pressure in the short term if the pair fails to close above the 46.00 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 24,000 during the sharp drop in price from 45.95 to 45.65, aligning with the move and confirming bearish conviction. Notable divergences occurred during the 06:00–08:00 ET window, where price recovered slightly but volume remained muted, suggesting weak bullish momentum. Total volume remained above 10,000 for most of the session, with notable dips during the 03:00–05:00 ET window.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing high of 47.21 and low of 45.44, the 38.2% retracement is at 46.30, while the 61.8% retracement sits at 45.92. The current price is below the 61.8% level and approaching the 45.50–45.30 support zone. A break below 45.50 could trigger a retest of the 45.30 level, with the 45.20–45.10 range becoming the next potential area of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on capturing the bearish momentum seen in this session by using a combination of RSI oversold conditions and Bollinger Band breakouts. Triggers could be set for when the RSI drops below 30 and the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band with confirmation from increasing volume. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 46.00 level, with a target aligned to the 45.30–45.20 Fibonacci support. This strategy would be best tested on a range of similar bearish setups across different timeframes and volatility levels to assess consistency.