Market Overview for SEIJPY on 2025-09-10

• SEIJPY broke above key resistance with a bullish reversal after a sharp dip.
• Strong volume and turnover confirmed the recent breakout above ¥45.65.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, signaling potential near-term profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating rising market activity.
• Fibonacci levels highlight a possible pullback target at ¥46.05 before further upside.

Price Action and Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-09-09, Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at ¥44.92 and experienced a volatile 24-hour session, with prices swinging between ¥44.60 and a high of ¥47.19 by the afternoon. The 24-hour candle closed at ¥47.16, forming a strong bullish reversal pattern. Total volume across the 15-minute OHLCV dataset was 348,824.0 units, and total notional turnover was ¥15,664,965.40.

Structure & Formations

SEIJPY saw a notable bearish pullback in the early hours, reaching as low as ¥44.60, before a sharp rally began around 19:30 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 20:00 and 20:15, followed by a higher high and higher close trend that continued into the morning of 2025-09-10. Key support levels observed were ¥45.65 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and ¥44.60 (prior low). Resistance levels were at ¥45.95 (daily high) and ¥46.36 (initial breakout).

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a golden cross around 17:45, signaling a strong bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages were closely aligned with the recent breakout level of ¥45.95, suggesting strong directional momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (75-85) during the late morning, while MACD showed positive divergence with rising volume, indicating strong upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly from 09:00 onwards, with Bollinger Bands widening to capture the ¥46.00–¥47.20 range. Price action remained above the upper band for most of the session, indicating strong bullish bias. A contraction in volatility was observed between 04:00 and 05:30, preceding the breakout, suggesting a potential reversal.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally between 19:30 and 20:45, with the largest single 15-minute volume of 13,117.0 units at 13:30 ET. Turnover also increased, peaking at ¥471,400 at the same time. Price and volume moved in concordance, confirming the breakout. A divergence was noted at 12:00, where volume declined slightly despite a rising close—possibly signaling a temporary consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from ¥44.60 to ¥47.19, key levels include 38.2% at ¥45.65, 61.8% at ¥46.63, and the full swing at ¥47.19. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at ¥46.36 served as a dynamic support-turned-resistance area. Prices are likely to retest the 38.2% retracement before attempting a new high.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 15-minute 20-period MA, confirmed by a closing price above the prior swing high and a MACD crossover into positive territory. Exit signals include an RSI overbought threshold (70+) and a pullback below the 50-period MA. Given the recent 20-period MA crossing and the MACD divergence, a confirmed breakout on a close above ¥47.20 may trigger a follow-through move toward ¥47.50, with a stop-loss near ¥46.50.