Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY)

• SEIJPY opened at 28.64, traded between 27.27 and 29.76, and closed near 29.76 at 12:00 ET.
• A sharp 21.3% rebound emerged from the session low after a 6-hour consolidation phase.
• High-volume moves above key Fibonacci levels reinforced the bullish bias.
• MACD and RSI suggest strong upward momentum, with RSI near overbought territory.
• Divergences in volume were noted during retracement phases, indicating strategic accumulation.

24-Hour Performance and Key Metrics

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 28.64 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and reached a low of 27.27 before surging to a high of 29.76 at 16:00 ET on 2025-10-23. The pair closed at 29.76 at 12:00 ET the next day, reflecting a strong recovery. Total traded volume was approximately 65,989.0 units, while total turnover amounted to roughly 1,851,357.9 JPY, indicating significant activity during the session.

Structure & Formations

The daily chart displayed a key bearish breakdown attempt at 27.27, followed by a sharp and sustained countertrend rally that culminated in a bullish breakout above the prior high of 29.76. A notable “Bullish Engulfing” pattern emerged during the early recovery phase, with a large 15-minute candle swallowing the previous bearish candle. This pattern, combined with a strong reversal from 27.27, signals strong buying pressure. The 28.40 level acted as a critical support, where price bounced repeatedly, forming a bullish base. Resistance is now at 29.76, which is also a recent Fibonacci extension level.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both rising, with the 20-period line above the 50-period line, reinforcing a bullish bias. The daily chart suggests a longer-term bullish setup, with the 50-period MA above the 200-period MA. MACD is in positive territory with a bullish crossover, while RSI is approaching overbought levels (above 70), indicating a potential slowdown or consolidation ahead. Traders may watch for a pullback to 28.40–28.50 for a possible continuation of the trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply during the recovery phase, with prices reaching the upper Bollinger Band at 29.76. The recent expansion suggests increased market participation and strong conviction. Price has now re-entered the upper half of the bands, which historically indicates a continuation of the trend if volume remains elevated. A retest of the lower band (around 27.27) would be significant, but current momentum favors a continuation above the midline.

Volume & Turnover Insights

Volume spiked to 8,594 at 18:30 ET on 2025-10-22 during the initial breakdown, followed by a sharp increase in volume during the rebound phase—particularly around 05:30 ET and 15:15 ET on 2025-10-23. Turnover also surged during these periods, aligning with the price action and suggesting strong accumulation. Divergences in volume were observed during retracement periods, especially between 20:00 ET and 01:30 ET, where price declined with low volume, indicating a lack of bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements from the low of 27.27 to the high of 29.76 show that the 61.8% level is at 28.87 and the 78.6% level is near 29.33. Price is currently trading above both levels, indicating strong bullish momentum. On the 15-minute chart, key retracements from the 27.27 low to the first high of 29.05 include 38.2% at 28.15 and 61.8% at 28.58. The current level of 29.76 aligns with the 100% Fibonacci extension from this earlier move, suggesting a possible pause or correction to the 29.33–29.05 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent “Bullish Engulfing” pattern observed on the 15-minute chart suggests a possible strategy to test. A backtest could be structured to enter long positions on confirmed bullish engulfing signals, with a 5-day holding period and no additional risk management. However, given the overbought RSI and expanding Bollinger Bands, incorporating trailing stops or profit targets at key Fibonacci levels (29.33–29.05) might improve risk-adjusted returns. Testing this hypothesis with historical data could provide insights into its viability in a volatile and trending market like SEIJPY.