Market Overview: Sei/Yen (SEIJPY)

• SEIJPY declined sharply over the past 24 hours, closing below key support levels.
• Momentum turned bearish mid-day, with RSI entering oversold territory after a sharp drop.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, confirming increased market uncertainty.
• Volume surged during the downward move, suggesting strong bearish conviction.

The Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) pair opened at 35.56 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 36.48, a low of 32.46, and closed at 33.06 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour trading volume was approximately 217,187.0 units, with a notional turnover of roughly 7,179,428.7 (assuming an average price of 33.06). The pair exhibited a sharp bearish reversal, forming a bearish divergence in momentum and a key breakdown below multiple support levels, raising concerns about further downside.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish breakdown below a prior consolidation range, with a key support level at 33.06 acting as a temporary floor. Several bearish engulfing patterns were visible in the 15-minute chart, particularly during the overnight Asian session. A notable bearish flag pattern emerged after a sharp rally from 32.46 to 36.48, followed by a steep correction. The pair may now be targeting the next major support at 32.25 or even 31.80 in the event of a deeper bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price during the sharp selloff, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is likely below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a short-term bearish bias. The 50-day MA acting as a dynamic resistance may now shift to a support role if the pair stabilizes near 33.06.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and diverged from the price during the selloff, confirming the bearish move. The RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, without a reversal in volume and price action, the bearish trend may continue. Traders should watch for a potential RSI divergence or a bullish candlestick to confirm a short-term bottom.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, reflecting increased volatility. Price moved from the upper band to the lower band within the 24-hour period, indicating a high volatility move. The pair is currently near the lower band, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, though a strong bullish reversal would require above 33.40 for meaningful upside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the downward move, especially in the hours between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, confirming the bearish conviction. Notional turnover spiked alongside the price decline, indicating significant bearish activity. Divergence between volume and price was not observed, as both metrics aligned in the same direction. This suggests a strong bearish conviction rather than a potential short-term bottoming pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 34.06 appears to have acted as a key resistance during the rally. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent move from 32.46 to 36.48 is at 33.89, which may become a critical level for near-term buyers. The 38.2% retracement at 35.19 is unlikely to offer support unless the RSI and volume show a clear reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described aims to identify bearish engulfing patterns, which were clearly visible in the data. A potential backtest could focus on entries triggered by a bearish engulfing candle with confirmation from volume and RSI divergence. For example, a trade could be initiated at the close of a bearish engulfing candle if RSI is above 50 and volume is above the 50-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed above the high of the engulfing candle, with a take-profit targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent swing high. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish action and could have been profitable if applied to this 24-hour period.