Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY)

• SEIJPY surged over 24 hours, reaching a high of 44.06 after a 4-hour consolidation phase.
• Momentum in the RSI and MACD indicates bullish strength, with no overbought warning yet.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the afternoon, reflecting heavy volume and sharp price swings.
• Bollinger Bands widened midday, signaling increased uncertainty and potential for breakouts or reversals.
• Fibonacci retracements confirm key levels at 42.38 (38.2%) and 43.13 (61.8%), aligning with recent pivots.

Price Action Summary

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 41.51 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 44.06 by 13:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour session closed at 42.79 with a total volume of 798,695 and a turnover of $34,616,598. The price trended upward with a midday pullback and a sharp rally in the early afternoon, followed by a modest correction in the later hours.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a clear bearish correction from 44.06 to 42.89, forming a descending pattern. Key support levels emerged at 42.89 (short-term) and 42.38 (38.2% Fibonacci), while resistance remains at 43.13 (61.8% retracement) and 43.34 (recent high). A bullish engulfing pattern was visible from 04:45 to 05:00 ET, confirming a resumption of the upward trend. A doji at 09:00 ET signaled indecision, but the strong buying pressure following it indicated renewed bullish momentum.

Moving Averages and Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) were in bullish alignment by 07:30 ET, confirming the uptrend. The 50-period SMA remained below the price, suggesting continuation potential. The 50/100/200-period daily moving averages were still in a bullish bias, though the 200-period SMA had not yet crossed below the 50-period to confirm a full trend.

The MACD showed a strong bullish crossover during the morning hours, with positive momentum increasing through the afternoon. RSI reached 60 by 13:30 ET, showing no overbought conditions yet. Bollinger Bands widened significantly between 13:00 and 15:00 ET, indicating heightened volatility and a potential for further price movement.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume surged in the early afternoon, with over 26,350 units traded at 13:30 ET as the price corrected from 44.03 to 43.90. Turnover reached a high of $1,118,100 at 15:30 ET during a short-lived rally to 43.11. Volume and price action were in alignment during the afternoon rally, confirming the bullish momentum. A divergence occurred at 16:00 ET, with lower volume during a pullback, suggesting potential exhaustion in the upward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 41.27 to 44.06, key levels include 42.38 (38.2%) and 43.13 (61.8%). The price briefly tested 43.13 before pulling back and consolidating. This level could become a critical area for near-term support or resistance. Longer-term daily Fibonacci levels also align with the 42.38–43.13 zone, reinforcing the importance of this price range.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on the 15-minute chart when the price closes above the 50-period SMA, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and a bullish engulfing pattern. A stop-loss could be placed below the recent 42.38 support level, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 43.13. The strategy should be tested over multiple similar 24-hour cycles to assess robustness. Volume confirmation is critical to avoid false breakouts and ensure liquidity.