Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY): 24-Hour Performance and Technical Insights

• The SEIJPY pair declined sharply over the last 24 hours, closing 10.0% below the opening price.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the peak at 51.6, signaling strong downward momentum.
• Volatility surged following a breakout from the Bollinger Band upper channel during the early hours.
• RSI reached oversold territory by 16:00 ET, hinting at potential short-term stabilization.
• A significant divergence between volume and price suggests weakening bearish conviction.

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 49.74 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 48.06 the following day at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a 24-hour high of 51.60 and a low of 47.72. Total volume reached 243,814.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 11,985,289.1 SEIJPY. Price action was characterized by sharp bearish momentum, with a notable breakdown below key support levels after a brief rally.

Structure & Formations

SEIJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern as it pulled back from 51.60, confirming a reversal in sentiment following a brief bullish push. A doji appeared at 50.35, suggesting indecision among traders around the 50.00 psychological level. Key support levels include 49.74 (initial low), 49.00, and 48.50, while resistance remains at 50.29 (recent high before breakdown).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) is currently at 49.09, below the 50-period SMA (SMA50) at 49.33, indicating a bearish cross. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA is at 49.25, slightly above the 200-period SMA at 49.15. The price remains below both, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line during the early hours of 2025-09-19, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached an oversold level of 28 by 16:00 ET, indicating potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation. However, RSI remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply following a breakout from the upper Bollinger Band at 51.60. The price then collapsed below the lower band, reaching 47.72. The bands have since widened, reflecting heightened uncertainty and potential for further movement in either direction. The price is currently near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a risk of testing 48.00–47.72.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 43,523.0 at 23:15 ET as the price broke down below 50.29, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume has since declined, while the price continues to fall. This divergence suggests weakening bearish pressure. Turnover spiked during the breakout but has cooled off as the price approached 48.00.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute high of 51.60 and low of 47.72, key levels include 50.52 (61.8%) and 49.66 (38.2%). The price found resistance near 50.52 before breaking down, suggesting that 49.66 may be a possible short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for SEIJPY involves entering short positions when the price breaks below a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (50.52) with confirmation from volume and MACD. A stop-loss can be placed above the 50.52 level, while a take-profit target is set at the 48.50 support level. This approach leverages the bearish breakdown and declining volume to capitalize on the continuation of the downward trend.

Looking ahead, SEIJPY could face near-term volatility depending on whether 48.50 holds or breaks. Traders should monitor RSI and volume for signs of a potential bounce or deepening bearish momentum. A close above 50.00 would signal a possible reversal, but a sustained break below 48.00 increases the likelihood of a test of 47.00–46.50. As always, risk management is critical in this volatile market.