Market Overview: Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-20)

• SEIJPY dropped to 47.39 intraday before showing signs of reversal, indicating a potential short-term oversold condition.
• Volatility expanded mid-cycle, with a high-low range of ~0.91, and volume spiked during the 23:30–00:00 ET window.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to mixed as the RSI approached oversold territory and MACD flattened near zero.
• Price tested the 47.76–47.82 range twice, suggesting a key support/resistance cluster around that zone.
• A long-legged doji formed at 00:15 ET, hinting at indecision amid the recovery attempt.

The Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) pair opened at 48.03 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at 47.36 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. The 24-hour range was 48.48 (high) to 47.39 (low), with total volume of 319,912.5 and a turnover of 14,848,585.00 Yen. The pair showed a bearish drift early on before stabilizing toward the close.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed multiple bearish and bullish signs over the 24-hour period. After an initial pullback to 47.39, a consolidation pattern developed between 47.52 and 47.82, with notable bullish candles forming between 04:00 and 06:00 ET. Key support levels emerged at 47.52, 47.76, and 47.39, with the latter showing a strong rejection. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 04:00 ET, indicating a short-term reversal attempt. A long-legged doji at 00:15 ET also signaled indecision amid the consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were positioned around 47.70 and 47.75, respectively, suggesting that the price was trading below both averages for most of the session. This indicated a bearish bias. The 200-period MA on a daily chart (not shown) would have been a critical level to watch for long-term direction, but intraday data did not confirm a clear break of that threshold.

MACD & RSI

The MACD flattened around the zero line after the bearish open, showing a lack of momentum. The signal line crossed the MACD line twice during the session, first bearishly at 00:15 ET and then bullish at 04:00 ET, aligning with the reversal pattern. The RSI reached 28 at the intraday low (47.39), entering oversold territory, which increased the probability of a short-term rebound. However, the RSI failed to break back above 50, indicating limited bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the 23:30–00:00 ET window, with the upper and lower bands widening from ~0.35 to ~0.60. The price traded near the lower band for much of the early session and moved closer to the middle band by the end of the 24-hour period. This suggested that the bearish momentum was exhausting, though a definitive breakout had yet to occur.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the 23:30–00:00 ET and 04:00–06:00 ET windows, coinciding with sharp price moves. The highest volume occurred at 00:15 ET, when the price was near 47.72, and at 04:00 ET with a bullish engulfing pattern. Notional turnover mirrored these spikes, with the total reaching ~14.85 million Yen. Divergences were minimal, but the volume on the reversal candle supported a potential bullish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing low (47.39) and the swing high (48.48), the 61.8% level at ~47.83 served as a critical resistance. The 38.2% level at ~47.76 coincided with the consolidation phase and showed strong support. Price failed to breach 47.83, suggesting that this level could remain key in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at ~47.83 as a dynamic resistance and the 38.2% at ~47.76 as dynamic support. Given the RSI reaching oversold territory and the bullish engulfing pattern forming around 04:00 ET, a buy setup could be considered with a stop-loss below 47.39 and a target at 47.83. The MACD flattening near zero and the Bollinger Bands converging also suggest a possible low-volatility setup for a reversal trade. The volume during the consolidation phase provides further validation that a breakout may be imminent.