Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-11

• • •

• Price surged from 46.76 to 48.73, forming a bullish reversal pattern after hitting a 24-hour low of 46.19.
• Momentum increased sharply in the first half of the session, with RSI reaching overbought levels by midday.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening and a high of 48.61 exceeded the upper band.
• Volume spiked in the morning, confirming the bullish breakout, but tailed off after 12:00 ET.
• Turnover was uneven, showing a divergence in late session activity as price pulled back toward the 47.15 level.

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 46.76 at 12:00 ET-1 and surged to a 24-hour high of 48.73, closing at 47.15 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached an intraday low of 46.19 and recorded a total volume of 318,354.00 with a notional turnover of 15,238,042.00 over the period.

Structure & Formations

SEIJPY formed a strong bullish reversal pattern following a sharp selloff to 46.19 on the morning of September 10. A long lower shadow and a positive close near the high of the session at 48.73 indicated strong buying pressure. On the afternoon of September 11, a bearish continuation pattern emerged as price pulled back into the 47.15–47.30 range. Key support appears to be at 47.15, with 47.35 acting as a short-term resistance. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed after 09:45 ET as price moved from 48.76 to 48.39, suggesting traders may test 47.0–47.2 for the next few hours.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 15-minute chart shows the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed over on the morning of September 11, confirming a bullish crossover. The 50-period moving average (50SMA) crossed above the 100 and 200-period lines in the early afternoon, signaling a broader uptrend. However, after the 12:00 ET close, the 20SMA dipped below the 50SMA, hinting at a potential reversal. Volatility spiked as the Bollinger Bands widened significantly, with the 48.61 high breaching the upper band. This expansion suggests increased uncertainty and could precede a consolidation phase.

Momentum and RSI

Momentum, as measured by the MACD, surged into the positive territory in the morning and peaked at 12:15 ET with a value of 0.50, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, by the afternoon, the histogram began to contract as bears took control. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) by 04:15 ET and remained above 60 for over eight hours, indicating exhaustion. By 14:00 ET, RSI had dipped below 50, suggesting a possible bearish reversal as the 24-hour close approached.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early morning session, peaking at 23,416.0 at 03:00 ET as price surged to 48.37. This was followed by a steady decline as the price pulled back. By 12:00 ET, volume had dropped to 8,051.0, but turnover remained high at 384,454.50. A divergence between volume and price was observed in the final hours, with price declining but volume remaining elevated. This suggests lingering interest and potential for a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 46.19 to 48.73, the key levels are 47.34 (38.2%) and 47.81 (61.8%). The price found initial support at the 61.8% level before falling further. On a daily chart, the 200-day Fibonacci level at 46.76 served as a psychological floor, and the 50-day retracement at 48.07 acted as a ceiling during the morning session. These levels could influence short-term behavior over the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the convergence of moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels to identify high-probability entries. For example, a long entry could be triggered when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA and price tests a key Fibonacci support level, such as 47.34. Stops could be placed below the nearest support level, with targets aligned to the next Fibonacci resistance. This setup would capitalize on confirmed bullish momentum while managing risk through strict entry and exit rules.