Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY): 2025-09-25 12:00 ET

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• Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 44.06, peaked at 44.25, and closed at 42.17 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25.
• Bearish momentum dominated the last 24 hours, with a sharp decline from 44.25 to 41.61 intraday, suggesting increased short-term selling pressure.
• Volume surged during the downward moves, particularly after 22:00 ET, indicating conviction in bearish bias.
• RSI fell into oversold territory near 30, but price did not reverse, indicating potential extended bearish continuation.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop, confirming high volatility and uncertainty in near-term direction.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) closed at 42.17, down from an open of 44.06 24 hours earlier. The pair reached a high of 44.25 and a low of 40.98, reflecting a broad range of 3.34 yen. The total volume traded over the period was 308,259.0, while notional turnover came in at 13,064,392.70 yen.

The market structure shows a clear bearish bias from a key resistance level around 44.25, where a bullish engulfing pattern failed to hold, giving way to a bearish breakout. A shooting star appeared at 22:30 ET, followed by a doji at 03:45 ET, signaling ** indecision after the strong downward move. The support level at 42.00 was tested multiple times and appears to hold as a short-term floor**.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bearish alignment, with the 20 MA below the 50 MA, reinforcing a short-term downtrend. The MACD is negative and declining, reflecting worsening momentum in the downward direction. The RSI has been below 40 for most of the session, dipping into oversold territory (below 30) near 11:00 ET, though the price did not reverse, suggesting continuation risk.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the drop from 44.25 to 40.98, reflecting elevated volatility. The price has spent over half of the 24-hour window below the lower band, indicating extreme bearish pressure. A volatility contraction may occur near the 42.00–42.50 zone, potentially setting up for a directional breakout or a reversal attempt.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically during the midnight-to-morning session, especially from 02:45 ET to 04:45 ET, when the price fell from 42.87 to 42.13. This volume divergence confirms strong bearish conviction during the decline. However, turnover remained moderate during the final 6 hours, indicating diminishing short-term selling pressure, which could hint at a potential stabilization near current levels.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

The 44.25 to 40.98 swing defines a key bearish wave. The 61.8% retracement level is at 42.43, where the price has tested multiple times but failed to hold. The 38.2% level is at 43.01, which is now out of immediate reach. A retest of the 42.00–42.50 range is likely, and a break below 41.61 could see the price targeting the 40.98 support again or possibly the 40.50–40.60 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish engulfing pattern at 17:45 ET and the failed rebound from the 44.16–44.25 resistance, a short-term bearish strategy could be backtested: entering shorts at 44.06 with a target at 42.00 and a stop-loss above 44.25. Given the high volume during the decline and the RSI entering oversold territory without reversal, the strategy may include holding through the 42.00–42.50 range as a risk-adjusted target. The MACD divergence during the final hours also suggests caution in aggressive shorting, favoring tight stop-loss management.