Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) – 2025-09-24

• Price dipped to a 24-hour low of 42.3 before rebounding strongly, closing near 44.0.
• Momentum accelerated in the final 4.5 hours, closing higher with strong volume.
• Bollinger Band contraction preceded the breakout, suggesting heightened volatility.
• Volume surged during the rebound, aligning with price action for potential trend confirmation.
• RSI and MACD suggest momentum is building, but overbought conditions remain a risk.

At 12:00 ET − 1, SEIJPY opened at 43.85 and closed at 44.00 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 44.39 and a low of 42.0. Total 24-hour volume was 334,036, and notional turnover amounted to 14,694,291 (based on average price). The pair experienced a sharp drop followed by a strong recovery, signaling potential shifting sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart displayed a bearish reversal pattern as prices fell to 42.3, but a strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final 2.5 hours. Key support levels were identified around 42.3 and 43.0, while resistance emerged near 43.8 and 44.0. A doji formed briefly at 43.6, indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price during the dip, but the price reversed above both after 21:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at approximately 43.5, and the 200-period MA at 43.2, suggesting a potential shift toward bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive during the final 3 hours of the 24-hour period, signaling bullish momentum. RSI reached levels above 60, indicating growing buying pressure but not yet overbought. The RSI divergence during the 22:30–23:30 ET dip hinted at a potential bounce before the final rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was compressed as the price hovered near the middle band from 20:00–23:00 ET before a sharp break to the upper band. This breakout confirmed a reversal and suggests continued upward potential if buyers maintain control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the rebound, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring at 04:15 ET (232,410 units). This coincided with a 3.86% drop in price to 42.0, followed by a sharp reversal. Turnover also surged during the bounce, aligning with price action and confirming the strength of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 24-hour low of 42.0 and the high of 44.39 marked a key swing for Fibonacci levels. The 38.2% retracement sits at 43.1 and the 61.8% at 43.8. The price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential consolidation or further breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with a bullish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a volume spike above the 20-period average. This approach could capture momentum-driven bounces and trend confirmations, particularly in a market showing signs of volatility and reversal.