Market Overview for SEI/BNB – 2025-10-03

• SEI/BNB traded lower by ~7.3% over the past 24 hours with a key breakdown below 0.000275.
• Volatility surged in the 20:30–21:15 ET window with a sharp pullback from 0.000281 to 0.000275.
• RSI oversold territory reached 28.5, suggesting potential short-term rebound, but bearish momentum remains dominant.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price approached the lower band, indicating increased volatility and distribution pressure.
• Volume peaked at 42789.4 SEI at 20:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp price drop to 0.0002757.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Sei/BNB (SEIBNB) opened at 0.0002786 at 12:00 ET – 1, with a high of 0.0002813 and a low of 0.0002628, closing at 0.0002628 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume reached 241,181.9 SEI, with a notional turnover of approximately 64.39 BNB (based on SEI/BNB prices). The market exhibited bearish sentiment with a clear breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish breakdown below 0.000275, confirmed by a long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 20:45 ET, with a high of 0.000278 and a low of 0.0002752. A key swing low formed at 0.0002628, potentially signaling short-term support. No strong bullish reversal patterns were observed, but a bearish engulfing pattern at 20:30 ET marked the start of the significant decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both fell below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs are also in a descending order, with the price continuing to trade below all three, indicating a strong downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the decline at 20:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram expanded through 20:45 ET before tapering. RSI dropped to 28.5 by 04:00 ET, entering oversold territory, but failed to rebound, suggesting exhaustion may not be immediate. Divergence between RSI and price was minimal, with both reflecting bearish conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 20:30–21:00 ET window, with price dropping to the lower band and remaining near that level for the following 8 hours. This suggests increased volatility and potential for a rebound or continuation of the decline. Price has spent the last 12 hours near or slightly above the lower band, signaling possible support consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 20:45 ET with a trade of 42,789.4 SEI, coinciding with the largest single-candle price drop to 0.0002757. Turnover also increased during this period, indicating strong selling pressure. Despite the oversold RSI reading, volume has remained relatively low during the 04:00–08:00 ET consolidation phase, suggesting reduced conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.618 Fibonacci level (0.000270) was a key level of resistance before the breakdown at 20:30 ET. After the drop, price reached the 0.382 retracement level at 0.000264, where it found temporary support but failed to hold. The 0.618 level at 0.0002628 appears to be the next significant support area, with potential for a bounce or further decline depending on volume and order flow.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakdown and confirmation by volume and momentum indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short position triggered on a close below 0.000275 with a stop loss above the 0.0002777 level. A take-profit target could be placed at the 0.618 Fibonacci level of 0.0002628, with a trailing stop if the move is confirmed by renewed volume. This setup aligns with bearish momentum and key support levels identified in the analysis.