Market Overview: Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) 24-Hour Analysis

• SCRTBTC dropped 0.61% over the past 24 hours with a bearish bias forming in the late evening.
• Price tested and retested a key resistance level at 1.76e-06, failing to break above multiple times.
• Volatility expanded early in the session before contracting into a tight consolidation range.
• A large bearish volume spike at 18:30 ET pushed price down from 1.73e-06 to 1.75e-06.
• RSI remains neutral, but negative momentum suggests further downside risk if support at 1.53e-06 is breached.

Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) opened at 1.74e-06 on October 8, 12:00 ET, and closed at 1.59e-06 at 12:00 ET on October 9, with a high of 1.77e-06 and a low of 1.53e-06. The pair experienced heavy bearish volume, with a total volume of 175,172.5 BTC and a notional turnover of $262.75 (assuming BTC price at $60,000).

Structure and formational analysis reveal a strong bearish bias. Price formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows, especially in the 18:00–20:00 ET window, indicating rejection of higher levels. A key resistance at 1.76e-06 failed to hold, and support at 1.53e-06 was tested twice, both times showing increased volume, suggesting potential short-term consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring at 00:30 ET, confirming downward momentum. RSI fluctuated between 40–60, showing no signs of overbought conditions but indicating a potential oversold scenario as it approached 30 near the close. This suggests that further support tests are possible but not imminent unless trading volume increases.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion early in the session, particularly after the 18:30 ET candle pushed price down sharply. The subsequent contraction indicates a period of consolidation. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting bearish control in the short term.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume spiked significantly during the 18:30–19:30 ET window, with a massive 14,649.1 BTC traded on the 18:30 ET candle, pushing price from 1.73e-06 to 1.75e-06. Notional turnover mirrored this movement, confirming the bearish breakdown. In contrast, the final hour of the session showed minimal volume, suggesting a lack of conviction among traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 18:30–00:00 ET move, key levels include 61.8% at 1.66e-06 and 38.2% at 1.69e-06. Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before falling further, indicating bearish control. A retest of the 1.66e-06 level in the coming 24 hours could provide a short-term buying opportunity.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on identifying a bearish breakout after a consolidation period within a defined channel, confirmed by a high-volume candle closing below a key Fibonacci level. The recent breakdown at 1.76e-06 followed by a high-volume candle aligns with this setup. A valid signal would be a close below 1.53e-06 with rising volume, suggesting further bearish momentum. This strategy could be backtested using a 15-minute chart with 50-period EMA and Bollinger Bands, entering on a break below the lower band with a stop just above the 1.6e-06 level.