Market Overview for Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC)

Summary
• Price action shows a bullish breakout in late-night hours, ending near intraday high.
• Volatility dipped after 18:00, but spiked again after 20:15.
• Volume was concentrated in two key surges — at 20:15 and 00:30.

The Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC) pair opened at 1.305e-05 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded between 1.298e-05 and 1.35e-05 before closing at 1.323e-05 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume amounted to 15,484.42, with a notional turnover of approximately 2.04 BTC, based on the weighted closing prices.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level around 1.302e-05, which held twice before breaking in late trading. A bullish breakout occurred at 20:15, followed by a strong rally to 1.35e-05. A double-bottom formation at 1.302e-05 to 1.298e-05 appears to have resolved in favor of the bulls. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 20:15–20:30, reinforcing the breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA moved below the 50-period SMA during the consolidation phase, but reversed as the price surged past the 20-EMA at 20:30. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is currently above the 200-period SMA, indicating a possible bullish bias, though the 100-period SMA remains as a potential short-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines crossed above the signal line just before the breakout, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI surged from 45 to 68, suggesting growing bullish sentiment. While not yet overbought, the RSI suggests a potential for further upward movement, with a possible pullback toward the 50–55 range expected if buyers hesitate.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed during the consolidation phase between 18:00 and 20:00, indicating low volatility. The breakout coincided with a band expansion, with prices closing above the upper band at 1.34e-05. This suggests a period of heightened volatility and momentum in favor of buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly concentrated in two surges — a 1,494.4-volume spike at 20:15 and a 3,077.85-volume burst at 00:30. Both were accompanied by strong price movement, suggesting coordinated buying. Turnover was disproportionately high during these periods, indicating active participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were key during the 1.298e-05 to 1.35e-05 move, with 61.8% (1.325e-05) acting as a minor resistance and 38.2% (1.322e-05) as a potential support level for the next 24 hours. The close at 1.323e-05 is near the 38.2% level, suggesting possible consolidation or a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action aligns with a backtesting strategy focused on 15-minute breakout entries, with a one-day holding period. The strategy showed promising results, including a total return of approximately 226% and an annualized return of 32.6%. The max drawdown of 22% and Sharpe ratio of 0.54 suggest moderate risk-adjusted performance. The use of close prices and no additional stops or targets mirrors the observed behavior in the breakout patterns noted earlier. This strategy could be refined by incorporating stop-loss and take-profit levels aligned with the Fibonacci levels discussed, potentially improving risk management and capital preservation.