Market Overview for Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC)

• Price drifted lower after forming a bearish engulfing pattern late Thursday.
• MACD and RSI signaled weakening momentum, with RSI approaching oversold territory.
• Volatility contracted before a sharp 15-minute reversal attempt into Friday morning.
• Turnover remained muted, with no significant divergence between volume and price action.
• Bollinger Bands showed tight containment before a small break below the lower band.

The Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC) pair opened at 1.606e-05 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.642e-05 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 1.653e-05 and a low of 1.589e-05. Total volume for the period was 4,167.85 BTC, and notional turnover was $66.91 (assuming $63,000 BTC price). Price action remained within a narrow range until a sharp intraday drop and late-day recovery attempt, failing to hold key levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC structure revealed a critical bearish engulfing pattern around 01:15–01:30 ET, which confirmed the breakdown from a previous consolidation range. A small bullish reversal appeared at 03:30 ET as price rebounded from 1.589e-05, but failed to close above the prior high of 1.629e-05. A doji formed at 12:00 ET, indicating indecision and potential for a short-term bounce. The intraday range suggests a possible support zone forming around 1.624e-05, with 1.642e-05 acting as a weak resistance level.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart intersected within the 1.591e-05 to 1.61e-05 range, indicating a neutral trend. Price closed near the 50-period MA at 1.642e-05, suggesting possible exhaustion in the current move. On a daily basis, the 50/100/200 SMA lines remained relatively flat, with no clear directional bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the intraday decline, with the histogram shrinking slightly after the 03:30 ET rebound, signaling reduced momentum. RSI drifted into oversold territory (below 30) at 05:00 ET, then partially recovered as price rallied but failed to close above 40. This suggests limited buying pressure and potential for a sideways or continuation move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained compressed for much of the session, with price trading near the middle band until a brief dip below the lower band at 05:00 ET. This contraction was followed by an expansion, but the bounce failed to reach the upper band, suggesting weak conviction in the short-term recovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 04:15 ET (582.5 BTC) and 07:30 ET (174.24 BTC), coinciding with the sharp leg up and down. These spikes were not mirrored by large turnover, indicating possible low-value trading or small-position activity. The doji at 12:00 ET was accompanied by minimal volume, suggesting lack of follow-through from the morning rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 1.589e-05 to 1.653e-05, price tested the 61.8% retracement level (1.624e-05) twice without closing above it. The 50% retracement level (1.621e-05) also served as a temporary barrier. On a daily scale, the 38.2% retracement of the prior week’s range remains near 1.653e-05, offering potential resistance if bullish momentum builds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions after a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern and a close below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed above the prior swing high, while a take-profit target could be set at the nearest Fibonacci level (e.g., 1.624e-05). Given the recent muted turnover and overbought RSI, this approach may aim to capitalize on a continuation of bearish momentum or a consolidation into a new range.