Market Overview for Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT)

• Price declined from 0.07748 to 0.07425, forming a bearish trend with key support at 0.07497
• Volume surged during the final 4.5 hours, indicating heightened selling pressure
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce
• Price traded within contracting Bollinger Bands earlier in the day, before breaking lower
• MACD turned bearish with a negative crossover, confirming downward momentum

At 12:00 ET–1, Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) opened at 0.07748, reached a high of 0.07923, and closed at 0.07425 after hitting a low of 0.07387 by 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 26,826,791.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,045,573. The pair has shown a clear bearish bias, especially after a key breakdown below the 0.07563 support level.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured a bearish breakdown pattern after the 0.07563 support was breached. A large bearish candle formed in the final 15-minute session, confirming the breakdown. A potential double-bottom formation at 0.07387–0.07497 could offer a floor, but bears appear to hold control for now. A doji near 0.07563 at 15:45 ET suggested indecision before the decisive move lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish, with the 20-SMA dipping below the 50-SMA. For the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs have been descending in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the downward trend. A reversal would require price to close above the 50-day MA at 0.0781 for a potential bullish tilt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, aligning with the falling price. RSI bottomed near 30 in the final candle, entering oversold territory but not yet signaling a strong bounce. Momentum remains on the downside, with RSI showing minimal overbought readings during the day. A move above 0.0772 could trigger a temporary RSI rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was compressed in the morning with price clustering near the midline of the bands, before a sharp expansion during the breakdown. The final candle closed at the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a high-risk environment. A rebound to the midline or upper band could offer short-term relief but may not be enough to reverse the trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained moderate until the last 4.5 hours, when it spiked sharply, particularly at the 15:00 ET–16:00 ET interval. Notional turnover mirrored this increase, especially between 15:15 ET and 16:00 ET. The divergence between early morning volume and price action suggests bears were accumulating ahead of the breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.07497 level aligns with the 38.2% retracement of a recent upward swing, offering a key short-term support. The daily chart’s 61.8% level is near 0.07387, where the price found a temporary floor. A move below 0.07387 would expose the 50% retracement at 0.0749 as a potential new support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-SMA crosses below the 50-SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss above the recent high and a take profit at the next Fibonacci level. Given today’s breakdown, this setup aligns well with current momentum. Adding a MACD crossover below zero and RSI < 50 would enhance the signal.