Market Overview for Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) – 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price closed lower after a bearish reversal pattern at 0.0786, with volume increasing mid-day.
• RSI entered oversold territory late, hinting at potential short-term support.
• Volatility expanded early, but has since contracted near 0.0778-0.0784.

Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) opened at 0.0802 on 2025-11-12 and closed at 0.0780 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.08056 and a low of 0.07739. The 24-hour volume was 5.6 million units, and notional turnover was $433,000. A bearish momentum is unfolding as price retreated below key moving averages.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.0786 in the early evening, followed by a doji near 0.07784, signaling indecision and a potential turning point. Key support appears to be consolidating at 0.0778-0.0781, while resistance is forming at 0.0786-0.0787. A breakdown below 0.0776 may lead to further bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bearish bias. The 50-period line is now at 0.0782, and the 20-period line is at 0.0785. On a broader scale, the 200-period daily MA is likely above 0.0790, indicating a medium-term bearish setup should the price fail to hold near 0.0785.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the afternoon, reinforcing the bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 30 in the overnight session, entering oversold territory, which could imply short-term stabilizing pressure. However, with price failing to hold above the 0.0784 level, the bearish signal remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session with a wide band between 0.0792 and 0.0806, but has since narrowed to a range of 0.0774–0.0786. Price has recently been trading near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or continued downward drift depending on volume dynamics.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 0.07971, with 2.8 million units traded. Turnover also spiked in that candle, indicating significant distribution pressure. Volume has since decreased, with lighter buying interest observed in the overnight session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.0806 high to 0.0774 low include 61.8% at 0.0783 and 38.2% at 0.0788. Price is currently consolidating near the 61.8% level, which could act as a pivot point for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish setup and RSI in oversold territory, a 3-day holding backtest using close prices and a 14-period RSI threshold of 30 could help validate the potential for short-term rebounds or continued declines. This strategy aligns with the observed price dynamics and could help quantify the likelihood of a bounce or breakdown.