Market Overview for Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Price tested key resistance near 0.0793 before retreating, signaling potential bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with a sharp drop below 0.0775 and a surge in volume.
• RSI showed overbought and oversold conditions multiple times, indicating erratic short-term sentiment.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged late morning, suggesting a possible continuation of downward pressure.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the pair moved through a high-volatility phase.

Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) opened at 0.07855 on 2025-10-08 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.07723 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.07958 and a low of 0.07577. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10,693,690.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $838,347.53.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed multiple key levels of significance. Resistance emerged near 0.0793, where price repeatedly failed to hold, with a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.07931 to 0.07681 indicating strong seller pressure. Key support levels were observed around 0.0772 and 0.0765, where the price found temporary refuge multiple times. A morning bullish reversal failed as sellers retook control, and a long lower shadow on the candle at 0.07729 to 0.07794 suggested indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were in a bearish crossover (death cross) by the afternoon, reinforcing downward momentum. The daily chart showed a similar bearish alignment with the 50- and 200-period lines, suggesting the broader trend is still bearish. The 100-period SMA acted as a dynamic resistance during the morning rally, capping upward moves around 0.0777–0.0779.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained below the zero line for the majority of the period, with a negative histogram and bearish crossover indicating sustained bearish momentum. RSI oscillated between overbought and oversold levels multiple times, showing a lack of conviction in either direction. Notably, RSI hit oversold conditions below 30 after the sharp drop to 0.07577, suggesting a potential bounce, though price failed to follow through convincingly.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 02:45 ET, with the bands widening to over 0.0026 by 08:30 ET. During this phase, price traded near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. However, the bands began to contract slightly during the final hours, hinting at a potential consolidation phase ahead. Price has remained below the 20-period SMA for most of the session, staying within the lower half of the bands.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked multiple times, notably between 08:30 ET and 10:00 ET, when the price dropped from 0.0781 to 0.07606 on high-volume bearish pressure. Notional turnover increased significantly during the 08:30–09:00 ET period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume occurred after 14:45 ET, when price continued lower but volume dipped, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 0.07958–0.07577 swing were key during the session. Price found support at the 61.8% level (0.07706) and the 38.2% level (0.0781). The 50% retracement (0.07766) acted as a temporary barrier during the consolidation phase in the afternoon. The 78.6% level (0.07666) was briefly tested but failed to hold, indicating sellers are still in control.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on using the bearish engulfing pattern and MACD death cross as sell triggers, combined with Fibonacci support levels as stop-loss or profit-target points. Given the recent bearish momentum, entering short positions on a break below 0.0772 with a stop just above 0.0775 could be a viable approach. The RSI’s frequent overbought/oversold transitions suggest a high-frequency mean-reversion strategy could also be tested, although the erratic nature of the price action adds complexity.

Forward-Looking View

The next 24 hours may bring a test of the 0.0772 and 0.0766 support levels. A break below 0.0772 could accelerate the downtrend toward the 0.0765 psychological level. However, buyers may retest the 0.0772–0.0775 range for support, especially if volume decreases and price finds a base during consolidation. Investors should remain cautious of false breakouts and divergence between price and indicators.