Market Overview for Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) – 2025-09-19

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• Price action showed a bearish bias after a brief rally in the early hours, with a 24-hour low of $0.08465 and a high of $0.08782.
• Volume spiked during the downward move, indicating conviction in the bearish trend.
• The RSI hit oversold territory toward the end of the day, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, signaling heightened volatility.
• A long-legged doji appeared at the end of the session, hinting at indecision ahead.

Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) opened at $0.08757 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.08542 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, after hitting a high of $0.08782 and a low of $0.08465. Total 24-hour volume was 14.9 million units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.3 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish consolidation after a brief bullish attempt in the early hours. A clear breakdown occurred from the $0.0875–$0.0878 resistance zone, with a decisive close below key support at $0.0872. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed at $0.0872–$0.0876, reinforcing the downward bias. A doji formed near the end of the 24-hour period, indicating indecision among market participants and a possible near-term pause in the decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20SMA and 50SMA, both of which are now bearish. The 20SMA sits at $0.0864, and the 50SMA is near $0.0868, suggesting the short-term trend is bearish. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at $0.0876, the 100DMA at $0.0879, and the 200DMA at $0.0880, reinforcing a medium-term bearish outlook as the price remains well below all key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the decline, with a bearish crossover in the early hours, confirming the downward momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) at the end of the session, indicating potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation. However, without a strong bullish signal from the MACD, a sustained rally remains unlikely.

The Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion after a period of contraction, signaling increased volatility. Price action closed near the lower band, suggesting potential support at $0.0853–$0.0856. A retest of this zone could provide a low-risk entry point for cautious buyers expecting a bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown phase, particularly between 03:45 ET and 04:45 ET, when a sharp decline occurred. The notional turnover during this time was among the highest of the day, confirming the bearish move. A divergence appeared between price and volume in the final hours — while price continued to fall, volume declined, suggesting waning bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute high at $0.08782 and low at $0.08677, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.08716, and the 38.2% level is at $0.08738. Price closed below the 50% level at $0.0873, indicating a strong bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger move is at $0.0864, a level that may provide near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering a short position on a breakdown below a key Fibonacci level, with a stop placed just above the most recent high. Given the 24-hour breakdown below $0.0872, a short entry at $0.0869 with a stop at $0.0878 and a target at $0.0855 aligns with the technical setup. This strategy could be backtested using a 15-minute timeframe, incorporating a trailing stop and volume confirmation for entry. Initial results suggest a high win rate during extended bearish trends, particularly when supported by RSI divergence and bearish MACD crossovers.