Market Overview for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT)

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• Price action on SFPUSDT sees a 24-hour range of $0.435–$0.4848, ending near session lows.
• A notable bearish breakdown occurred between 17:45–20:00 ET, forming a key support at $0.4600–$0.4630.
• Volume surged at the end of the bear leg, hinting at possible short-term exhaustion or accumulation.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands expanded through the 24-hour period, showing elevated volatility.

The 24-hour trading session for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) began at 0.4777 and closed at 0.4673, with a high of 0.4848 and a low of 0.4600. The total trading volume across the 24-hour period was 4,651,761.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,116,534.24. The price action displayed a clear bearish bias, especially after 17:45 ET, where price broke a key psychological level and consolidated in a tight range.

Looking at the 15-minute chart, key support levels emerged around $0.4600–$0.4630 and $0.4550, with the former showing a high volume of orders and retests. Resistance levels were observed near $0.4760 and $0.4830. A bearish engulfing pattern formed from 18:00–18:15 ET, which coincided with a large volume spike and confirmed downward momentum. A doji candle formed near $0.4630, suggesting possible indecision in the market and a potential short-term pause.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish throughout the session, with price consistently below both lines. The MACD histogram showed a significant bearish divergence between price and momentum, especially between 22:00–00:00 ET. RSI dipped into oversold territory at 00:15 ET, which could indicate a possible bounce in the near term. However, the strength of the bearish trend may delay or limit any such rebound.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands displayed a noticeable expansion during the price decline from 17:45–20:00 ET, indicating heightened volatility. Price remained well below the 20-period moving average and inside the lower band for much of the session, particularly after 18:30 ET. This suggests that sellers were in control, and any near-term bounce may face resistance from the 50-period MA or the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown between 17:45–18:30 ET, with a total of 766,475 units traded over that period. Turnover during this time was approximately $351,000, reflecting strong selling pressure. However, volume declined after 20:00 ET, despite continued price declines, indicating possible exhaustion. A divergence between price and volume appears at the end of the session, which could hint at a potential shift or consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Using the 24-hour swing from $0.4848 to $0.4600, the key Fibonacci levels include:- 38.2% at $0.4716- 61.8% at $0.4668
Price is currently hovering near the 61.8% retracement level, which could serve as a potential support or pivot point for short-term buyers. On the daily chart, 50/100/200-period MA lines continue to trend lower, reinforcing the bearish bias in the broader context.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns in conjunction with divergences in MACD and RSI, particularly in oversold conditions. Based on today’s SFPUSDT chart, the bearish engulfing pattern at 18:00 ET and the RSI hitting oversold levels at 00:15 ET could qualify for a short entry signal. If used as part of a systematic strategy, this setup may have triggered a sell entry with a stop above $0.4690 and a target near $0.4550. The divergence between MACD and price during the 22:00–00:00 ET period further supports a bearish bias. While the market remains in a downtrend, traders may consider using Fibonacci levels as dynamic support to manage exits or entries.