Market Overview for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT): 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Price surged 18.5% to a 24-hour high of $0.5083 before consolidating near $0.497–0.500.
• Strong bullish momentum early in the session, followed by mixed RSI signals and waning volume.
• Key resistance at $0.500–0.503 and support at $0.495–0.498 marked by multiple bounces.
• Volatility expanded midday, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume spiking during the rally.
• Recent Fibonacci levels align with consolidation, suggesting possible retest of 61.8% at $0.501.

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.4668 on 2025-09-30 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.5083, and closed at $0.4972 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-01. Total volume reached 7,636,435.00, with notional turnover reflecting significant midday bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong breakout midday, with a key bullish reversal candle on the 15-minute chart at 17:45 ET, forming a piercing pattern after a brief pullback. A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged during the 17:45–18:00 ET window as the price surged from $0.4693 to $0.5083, suggesting a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. The consolidation phase post-18:00 ET included a series of spinning top and small-range candles, indicating indecision among traders. Notable resistance emerged at $0.500–0.503, while support appeared to hold at $0.495–0.498, with multiple bounces from these levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed positively around 18:00 ET, confirming a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is rising, while the 200-period MA shows a slight downtrend, indicating mixed sentiment. Price is currently above the 50-day MA but below the 200-day MA, suggesting a potential test of longer-term bearish pressure in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned sharply positive during the 17:45–18:00 ET window, confirming the bullish breakout. However, by the 20:00 ET mark, the RSI peaked above 60 and then declined, signaling potential overbought conditions. The RSI then dipped below 50 after the 02:00 ET candle, showing waning momentum. The MACD histogram peaked and began to contract, indicating a possible slowdown in bullish momentum, which may lead to a pullback toward key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 17:45–19:00 ET window, as price surged above the upper Bollinger Band and broke out. The bands then expanded to reflect the heightened volatility, with a period of contraction observed between 04:00–06:00 ET. Currently, price is consolidating just below the upper band, suggesting a potential retest of the $0.500–0.503 resistance cluster in the coming hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout at 17:45 ET, with a candle showing 705,755.00 units traded—by far the largest 15-minute volume spike of the day. This was followed by a gradual decline in volume despite the price holding near the high, indicating weakening conviction. Turnover was significantly higher during the rally compared to the consolidation phase. A divergence between rising price and declining volume suggests caution is warranted in interpreting further upward moves as strong bullish confirmations.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $0.4693 to $0.5083, the 61.8% retracement level sits at $0.501–0.502, where price has shown multiple consolidations. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level is near $0.495 and the 61.8% is at $0.498, both of which acted as support during the consolidation phase. These levels are likely to be tested in the next 24 hours, with the 61.8% level being a key point for potential reversal or continuation of the recent bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period on the 15-minute chart, provided the price is above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the MACD is positive. Exit signals could be generated when the RSI falls below 50 or when the price closes below the lower Bollinger Band. Given the recent consolidation and the divergence in volume, this strategy could be tested with a stop-loss below $0.495 and a take-profit target near $0.505. The key variables are the strength of the bullish crossover, the alignment with Fibonacci levels, and confirmation via RSI and volume.