Market Overview for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-14

• Price opened at $0.4115 and closed near the session high at $0.4057, with a 24-hour high of $0.4311 and a low of $0.3865.
• Momentum shifted significantly from bullish in the afternoon to bearish at night, with a late rally into the close.
• Volatility expanded dramatically, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing both extremes on several occasions.
• Turnover spiked in the late afternoon and evening before moderating, showing mixed conviction among traders.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early close, indicating a potential reversal in trend.

The SafePal/Tether pair (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.4115 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4057 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.4311 and a low of $0.3865 over the period. The total volume was 1,506,143.0, and the notional turnover reached $605,684. The price action reflected a volatile session with a sharp bearish swing followed by a late bullish rebound.

Key support levels emerged around $0.3865–$0.3911, while resistance levels held at $0.4121–$0.4151. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around the 21:45–00:00 ET window, with a large red candle consuming a previous green body. A morning doji near $0.4009–$0.4046 also indicated indecision among traders during the early session.

The 15-minute chart showed the 20-period moving average crossing below the 50-period line at around $0.416, suggesting a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (at ~$0.414) and 200-period MA (at ~$0.403) were in a bearish alignment. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the late afternoon rally but quickly dipped below 30 into oversold territory in the early morning hours. The MACD histogram turned bearish at ~$0.0008 in the evening before flipping to bullish in the final hour.

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Volatility expanded significantly throughout the session, with Bollinger Bands widening from ~$0.403–$0.426 at the start to ~$0.386–$0.430 by the close. The price spent a large portion of the session in the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish dominance, before rallying into the upper band in the final hour. Volume activity increased sharply during the bearish pullback from $0.429 to $0.391, with notional turnover peaking at around $43,000 in the 21:15–21:30 ET window. Notably, volume and price moved in parallel during the late rally, suggesting a higher likelihood of continuation than divergence.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of $0.4311 and low of $0.3865 indicated key levels at 38.2% (~$0.4133), 50.0% (~$0.4088), and 61.8% (~$0.4042), all of which coincided with observed support/resistance areas. The 61.8% level was particularly significant, as it aligned with the late-day rally’s target and a morning doji formation. These levels may offer potential reversal or continuation signals over the next 24 hours.

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Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and overbought RSI conditions during the late afternoon pullback, a backtesting strategy could be constructed to test the efficacy of shorting at breakout below $0.3911 or buying the dip at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.4042. A potential rule-based approach would include entering a short position upon a close below the engulfing pattern’s low, or entering a long position once RSI retests oversold levels and bounces above $0.4042 with increased volume. This would allow for an analysis of profitability, drawdowns, and Sharpe ratios from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14 using the SFPUSDT pair. However, due to the current data access issue, this backtest cannot be run at this time.

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