Market Overview: Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) – Bullish Momentum Amid Volatility Expansion

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) surged from 1.111 to 1.198, with strong volume driving a 7.7% gain.
• Momentum indicators suggest a bullish trend, with RSI near overbought levels.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 2025-10-01 08:45 ET, with a 1.154–1.198 range forming a new consolidation zone.
• A potential support zone appears near 1.184–1.188, while resistance may form at 1.194–1.196.
• Divergences in volume and price suggest caution for further breakout attempts.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-01, Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.111, surged to a high of 1.198, and closed at 1.194, forming a bullish candle on a 24-hour 15-minute chart. Total volume stood at 2,851,156.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,200,529.60 (1.111 to 1.198 average price). The market displayed strong upward momentum in the morning session, followed by consolidation in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish trendline from 1.111 to 1.198, with key support and resistance levels emerging from recent swings. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 16:00 ET on 2025-09-30, confirming a shift in sentiment. Later in the morning of 2025-10-01, a series of strong green candles confirmed the continuation of the trend. A potential consolidation zone is forming between 1.184 and 1.198, with 1.188–1.192 acting as a key support range.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are well above the price, indicating bullish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA early in the session, forming a golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is rising, and the 200-period MA is beginning to slope upward, suggesting a potential medium-term reversal to bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive around 16:00 ET and remained above the signal line, supporting the bullish move. RSI reached overbought territory in the 75–80 range after 08:45 ET, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the divergence between the RSI and price in the last few hours suggests caution; a break above 1.196 may trigger further gains, while a close below 1.188 could test the consolidation zone.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the 08:45 ET candle, with the bands widening from ~0.013 to ~0.038. Price traded near the upper band between 09:00 ET and 16:00 ET, indicating strong bullish momentum. As of 16:00 ET, price resides just below the upper band, with the centerline at ~1.190 acting as a pivot. A breakout above the upper band could extend the rally, while a retest of the lower band near 1.184 may confirm the next support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 08:45 ET with the 522,582.0-volume candle marking the largest spike in the session. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the price move. However, volume has moderated in the afternoon, suggesting some exhaustion in the rally. A divergence between price and volume in the last few candles suggests caution for further bullish extension without a new volume surge.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1.111–1.198 move, key levels include 38.2% at ~1.155, 50% at ~1.1545, and 61.8% at ~1.154. Price appears to be forming a consolidation pattern above these levels, with the 1.188–1.192 range aligning with a 76.4% retrace. A break above 1.196 would target the 1.199–1.200 area, while a breakdown below 1.184 would test the 1.179 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described leverages key technical levels and momentum indicators. Based on the current setup, a potential long entry could be considered upon a close above 1.196, with a stop-loss below 1.188 and a first target at 1.199–1.200. The strategy would aim to capture continuation moves following a confirmed breakout above the consolidation zone. The recent divergence in RSI and volume, however, suggests that a pullback into 1.188–1.192 may offer a better risk-adjusted opportunity for longs.