Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT): 2025-11-08

Summary
• Rune/Tether opened at 0.785, peaked at 0.826, and closed at 0.803.
• Volatility expanded during a mid-session breakout attempt above 0.82, then contracted into a bearish range.
• Volume spiked during the 0.826 high but declined in the final hours, indicating waning momentum.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 0.785 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.826, fell to a low of 0.784, and closed at 0.803 by 2025-11-08 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 3,879,204.6, with a notional turnover of 3,130,884.4. The session saw mixed price action and a bearish reversal in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The session formed a bearish reversal pattern in the final 3–4 hours, with a bearish engulfing pattern developing after the 0.826 high. Key support emerged at 0.802–0.803, while resistance retested at 0.815–0.816. A doji at 0.816 (03:45 ET) marked a potential exhaustion point during a mid-session rally.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA crossed during the early bearish phase, confirming a short-term downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50DMA crossed above the 100DMA, indicating a mildly bullish bias in the broader timeframe. Price closed below both 50SMA and 100DMA at 0.803, suggesting a possible continuation of the short-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line after the 0.826 high, signaling bearish momentum. RSI reached overbought levels (76) during the 0.826 high, then rapidly collapsed to 39, indicating exhaustion. A potential oversold condition developed near the close (RSI ~39), suggesting short-term support may hold.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with a contraction in the final hour as volatility dropped. The 20-period band width narrowed below 0.005, indicating potential for a breakout or breakdown. At close, price sat just above the middle band at 0.803, with limited pressure either side.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 0.826 high with ~139,010.6 traded units, followed by a decline in the final hour despite the price dip. This divergence suggests waning buying pressure. Notional turnover also peaked at the high, with a drop-off after 04:00 ET. The final bearish candle at 11:45–12:00 ET saw strong volume relative to its size, confirming bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci retracement level at 0.816 (61.8% of the 0.784–0.826 swing) acted as a barrier, with price failing to hold above it. A 38.2% retracement level at 0.809 provided partial support during the 05:00–06:00 ET sell-off. On the daily chart, 61.8% of the 0.791–0.826 move aligns with 0.805–0.807, which may offer short-term support or resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy using the 14-period RSI for RUNE/USDT is being considered, starting from 2022-01-01. However, historical data for the symbol “RUNEUSDT” is unavailable. To proceed, we may need to:
1. Confirm a valid symbol (e.g., “THORUSDT” or “RUNE/USDT”).
2. Shorten the backtest period to match available data.
3. Use an alternative asset with readily available price history.
Your preference will determine the next steps in refining the backtest logic and testing results.