Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) climbed to a 24-hour high of $1.17 before retreating to close near $1.16.
• Momentum shifted mid-day with a bullish breakout, followed by consolidation and a pullback in the last 5 hours.
• Volatility expanded sharply in the early hours, then stabilized, with volume surging at key price levels.
• RSI and MACD indicate potential for overbought conditions as the price tests key resistance levels.
• Price is currently forming a bullish pattern on the 15-minute chart and may retest a critical support level in the coming hours.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at $1.137 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $1.17 before closing at $1.162 at 12:00 ET on October 10. Over the 24-hour period, the pair saw a total volume of 2,171,855.5 units and a notional turnover of approximately $2,530,000. The price action showed significant intraday volatility, with notable swings in both direction and momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a clear bullish breakout above $1.156 in the early hours, followed by a consolidation phase and a brief pullback in the late afternoon. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around $1.158, suggesting short-term buying pressure. A doji appeared at $1.155, signaling indecision, while a bearish harami formed near $1.165, hinting at potential downward correction. Key support levels appear at $1.152 and $1.146, with resistance around $1.168–$1.170.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20SMA and 50SMA) crossed in a bullish divergence in the morning, supporting the upward move. The 50SMA is now at $1.157, while the 20SMA sits slightly higher at $1.159. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at $1.150, the 100DMA at $1.148, and the 200DMA at $1.142, indicating a bullish bias in the longer term. The price is currently above all key moving averages, suggesting continued upside potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning, confirming a bullish momentum shift, with the histogram showing increasing positive divergence. The RSI has climbed into overbought territory (currently at ~64), suggesting that a short-term pullback could be imminent. However, the slow divergence in the RSI and MACD suggests that the bullish trend may persist longer than typical overbought indicators suggest.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply in the early hours, with the Bollinger Band width increasing by 15% from earlier levels. Price action has remained within the upper and lower bands throughout the 24-hour period, suggesting controlled volatility. The closing price of $1.162 lies near the upper band, indicating strong momentum. A reversal from this level may trigger a retest of the middle band as the next likely support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in two distinct waves: a large upsurge in the early hours (peaking at $1.166–$1.170) and a second, smaller surge in the afternoon (peaking at $1.165). Notional turnover aligned closely with these volume spikes, confirming the price action. A divergence appeared in the late afternoon when volume declined despite a price retest near $1.165, suggesting waning buyer interest. The overall volume profile remains bullish, with strong confirmation of the morning rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing high of $1.17 and low of $1.138, key retracement levels are at $1.154 (38.2%), $1.148 (50%), and $1.141 (61.8%). The price currently sits near the 38.2% retracement level, indicating potential for a retest of the 50% level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level aligns with the 200DMA at $1.142, suggesting strong support ahead if the price continues to consolidate.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could capitalize on the strong bullish momentum observed in the morning by entering a long position at the close of the bullish engulfing candle near $1.158, with a stop-loss placed below the doji at $1.155. The target could be set at the upper Bollinger Band at $1.162 and, if successful, extended to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A modified MACD crossover on the 15-minute chart could serve as an exit signal when the histogram begins to diverge. Given the volume confirmation and RSI divergence, this strategy appears well-aligned with the current price action.