Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) – 2025-10-08

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) closed higher after forming a bullish breakout above 1.160.
• Momentum indicators signaled overbought conditions near 1.165 but failed to break higher.
• Bollinger Bands tightened midday, followed by a price expansion toward the upper band.
• Turnover spiked during the 24-hour period, with strong volume observed above 1.160.
• A bullish engulfing pattern appeared during early morning ET, confirming a short-term reversal.

RUNEUSDT opened at 1.136 (12:00 ET − 1) and traded between 1.126 and 1.172, closing at 1.165 by 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 2,084,724.3 with a turnover of ~$2,398,084.06. The asset showed a strong upward bias driven by a breakout above key resistance levels and confirmed by increased volume.

Structure & Formations

Price action during the 24-hour period was characterized by a clear upward bias, particularly from the 19:30 ET session onward. A key support level at 1.142 held during early retracements, preventing further downside. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:00 ET, confirming a short-term reversal. The price tested 1.160 multiple times before forming a breakout candle with high volume. This indicates a potential shift in sentiment toward the upside. Resistance levels to watch include 1.165 and 1.172, while support remains at 1.155 and 1.149.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed upward during the breakout phase, confirming the bullish momentum. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period, signaling a potential continuation. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 1.150, aligning with the 1.149 support level. The 200-period MA is at 1.156, suggesting a long-term bullish trend is still intact. The price remains above the 50-period MA, indicating a strong bear-to-bull shift in the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached 68–70 during the breakout, indicating overbought conditions. However, the price failed to break 1.165, suggesting buyers may be facing short-term resistance. The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the breakout, confirming positive momentum. However, a potential divergence is forming as the MACD histogram has been decreasing while price continues to inch higher. This may signal a pause or consolidation phase before further upward movement.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the overnight session, signaling a period of consolidation and low volatility. After 02:00 ET, the price broke out above the upper band, expanding the bands and confirming a bullish breakout. The price has since remained near the upper band, indicating continued bullish momentum. A retest of the 1.160–1.165 range may bring the lower band into play again, offering a possible pullback zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged during the breakout phase, especially around 08:45 and 14:15 ET. These spikes coincide with key price movements and confirm the strength of the upward move. The volume profile shows a healthy distribution, with buyers stepping in at key levels above 1.160. A divergence between price and volume could suggest a possible pullback, but current indicators show strong alignment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute move from 1.142 to 1.172, key levels include 1.161 (38.2%), 1.159 (50%), and 1.157 (61.8%). The price appears to be holding above the 50% level and may retest 1.161 for confirmation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a recent leg down is at 1.156, coinciding with a key moving average and support level. A break above 1.165 would target the 1.172 high.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for RUNEUSDT involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern with confirmation from the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA. A stop-loss is placed at 1.149, and a target is set at 1.165. Given the strong volume and MACD confirmation, this setup appears to have a high probability of success over the next 48–72 hours. A key risk is a pullback below 1.149, which could invalidate the setup. Traders may consider taking partial profits at 1.160 and holding a portion for further upside.